It’s an active evening across a good chunk of Maryland. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 10 PM for essentially the entire I-95 corridor and points west, and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is already flagging storms crossing Washington and Frederick counties as of this writing (per NWS Baltimore/Washington, issued 3:31 PM, and NWS Mount Holly, 3:18 PM). Damaging wind gusts are the headline threat, with some hail and localized torrential downpours mixed in. Things should wind down after 9-10 PM, but a soggy, unsettled pattern lingers into Friday.
Tonight’s Timeline
- Now–6 PM: Scattered strong-to-severe storms already ongoing/developing along the Blue Ridge/I-81 corridor pushing into Washington and Frederick counties — a Severe T-Storm Warning is active there right now.
- 6 PM–9 PM: Storms spread northeast across the I-70/I-95 metros — Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, Howard, Anne Arundel, Harford — with a secondary batch possibly firing along a bay-breeze boundary toward Baltimore/Cecil. Damaging gusts, localized heavy downpours, some hail possible.
- 9 PM–Midnight: Severe threat winds down, but showers and a few lingering rumbles can persist into the late evening, especially central and southern MD and the Bay.
- Overnight into Friday morning: A slow-moving cold front sags through, keeping showers/storms in play, especially south of I-70/US-50.
Region by Region
Western Maryland
Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): Low around 60°, partly cloudy trending to patchy fog late, light SW wind, only an 11% shower chance — the quietest corner of the state tonight.
Allegany (Cumberland): Low near 64°, isolated shower/storm chance (23%) before fog develops overnight, winds light out of the SW.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): This is ground zero right now — a Severe T-Storm Warning covers the county. Low near 66°, but expect a rough few hours first with a 68% chance of storms, some capable of damaging gusts and hail, before showers taper toward midnight.
Frederick: Also under the warning as storms track through this evening. Low around 67°, 63% chance of showers/storms, main window 5-9 PM with damaging wind the top concern.
Carroll: Similar setup to Frederick — low near 67° (using the Frederick/Carroll grid), storms likely between roughly 6-9 PM with gusty, potentially damaging winds.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: All under the Severe T-Storm Watch until 10 PM. Low near 70°, 69% chance of showers and storms this evening, with a bay-breeze-driven cluster possible pushing into the Baltimore/Harford corridor. Damaging wind gusts are the main risk, with a secondary threat of locally heavy, training rainfall — watch for ponding on low-lying roads.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery & Prince George’s: Under the watch as well. Low around 69°, 67% chance of storms this evening tapering to a lingering 18% chance overnight. Gusty winds and brief downpours are the concern through around 9 PM.
Southern Maryland
Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: Covered by the watch. Low near 70°, 39% chance of scattered showers/storms this evening, with a continued chance (38%) overnight as the front lingers. Some storms could be strong with gusty winds.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil: Under the watch through 10 PM — keep an eye out for storms tracking off the bay breeze. Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline (Easton grid): low near 70°, 33% chance of evening storms, with better shower coverage building back in after midnight (up near 45%) as the front approaches.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset (Salisbury grid): Low around 71°, mostly cloudy with only a slight chance of storms this evening (15%), but chances climb toward 55% overnight as the front and any residual energy drift south.
Ocean City & the Coast
Worcester/Ocean City: Mild evening, low near 73°, mostly cloudy with just a 12% storm chance early, rising later. Surf running 2-3 feet with a Moderate Rip Current Risk in effect through this evening — swimmers should stay alert even after sunset activities near the water. Winds light out of the SW around 5-13 mph.
Active Hazards
- Severe Thunderstorm Warning — Frederick and Washington counties, MD (plus Berkeley & Jefferson counties, WV). In effect now; damaging winds and hail possible with tracking storms.
- Severe Thunderstorm Watch — until 10 PM tonight for District of Columbia, Anne Arundel, Baltimore City & County, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Charles, Frederick, Harford, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George’s, St. Mary’s, and Washington counties (plus surrounding VA/WV counties). Damaging winds are the main threat; large hail also possible.
- Moderate Rip Current Risk — Ocean City and Assateague beaches, in effect through this evening.
Severe & Flooding Threat
NWS Baltimore/Washington highlights damaging winds as the primary concern this evening, aided by 30-35 knots of deep-layer shear and around 1000 J/kg of instability. Some severe-level hail is also possible given strong mid-level lapse rates. There’s also a heavy rain concern — with precipitable water values over 1.5 inches, rain rates of a half-inch to an inch in 30-45 minutes are possible, and some training of storms (repeated cells moving over the same area) could occur roughly from Baltimore/Annapolis points northeast. No Flood Watch has been issued for Maryland at this time, but localized flash flooding in poor-drainage and urban spots is not out of the question — Mount Holly’s Flood Watch to our north (NJ/PA) underscores just how efficient this rain has been. The severe threat should ease after 9-10 PM, though showers may linger.
Winds & Bay/Marine
Ahead of and within storms, expect gusty, potentially damaging winds — the primary severe threat tonight. Outside of convection, general winds are light, generally S to SE at 5-10 mph across the Bay and tidal Potomac. Boaters on the Chesapeake and tidal rivers should watch for sudden wind shifts and gusts as storms pass through this evening.
Overnight Lows by Zone
| Zone | Low Tonight |
| Western Mountains (Garrett) | ~60° |
| Cumberland/Allegany | ~64° |
| Hagerstown/Washington Co. | ~66° |
| Frederick/Carroll | ~67° |
| Baltimore/DC corridor | 69-70° |
| Southern Maryland | ~70° |
| Eastern Shore | 70-71° |
| Ocean City | ~73° |
Looking Ahead
Friday: The slow-moving cold front finally clears the area during the morning, but expect more showers and thunderstorms, especially along and south of the front — southern Maryland looks favored for the better severe/heavy-rain chances (33-45% depending on location), with damaging winds again the main worry. Highs run mid-80s inland (86-87°) to near 79-80° at the coast. Saturday: Front stalls to our south, high pressure builds in behind it — a dry, warm, muggy day with highs mostly in the 80s (upper 80s Cumberland/Hagerstown, upper 70s to low 80s at Ocean City) and just a stray shower chance at most. Sunday looks similar with building heat as we head into next week — confidence is growing for a hot, humid stretch by the middle of next week as a ridge builds in from the south.
Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
Stay dry out there, Maryland — MDWA will be watching the radar through the evening and will flag any warnings as they’re issued.