Good morning. Per NWS Baltimore/Washington (issued 3:51 AM), Mount Holly (5:41 AM), and Wakefield (2:56 AM), the story today is a warmer, more humid air mass settling over Maryland, some patchy morning fog burning off quickly, and a modest chance of isolated-to-scattered afternoon thunderstorms — mainly along and west of the I-95 corridor. Nothing severe is expected, and nothing organized. Think of today as the on-ramp: the real headline is the late-summer heat wave building in behind it, with highs flirting with the mid-to-upper 90s by midweek and thunderstorm chances ramping up right along with it.
Timing — Hour by Hour
- Early morning (now–9 AM): Patchy fog and low clouds, especially in the mountains, interior valleys, and near waterways. Dew points have jumped into the mid-60s overnight — you’ll feel the difference the moment you step outside.
- Mid-morning (9 AM–Noon): Fog lifts, clouds scatter out, sun returns for most of the state. Humidity builds noticeably through this window.
- Afternoon (1–6 PM): Peak heating combines with a weak surface trough to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas along and west of I-95 — Washington, Frederick, Carroll, and the Baltimore/DC corridor look most favored, though a stray cell can’t be ruled out anywhere including the Shore.
- Evening (after 6 PM): Storms weaken quickly as instability fades with the sun. Skies clear out overnight.
Region by Region
Western Maryland
Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 80° — comfortable by summer standards up here. Winds light out of the southwest, 3-9 mph. A slight chance of showers giving way to isolated storms this afternoon (20%). Overnight lows dip to around 64°, genuinely pleasant for a porch sit.
Allegany (Cumberland): Warmer — high around 89°, with the same isolated shower/storm chance (20%) developing this afternoon. Winds light and variable. Lows tonight near 68°.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): High near 88°, muggier than it’s felt in weeks. Scattered showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening (34% — the highest coverage in the state today). South winds 5-8 mph. Lows near 70° with lingering patchy fog possible late.
Frederick & Carroll: Also near 88°, same 32% scattered storm chance this afternoon into evening. South winds 3-9 mph. Overnight lows around 70°, mostly cloudy.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, and Anne Arundel: high around 89°, partly sunny early with an isolated storm chance (21%) developing this afternoon and lingering into the evening. Winds south 3-9 mph — humid enough that the ballpark crowd will notice. Overnight lows near 73°, mostly cloudy skies.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery and Prince George’s: high near 88°, partly sunny with isolated storms possible this afternoon (21%). South winds 3-9 mph. Lows tonight around 72°, partly cloudy after any evening storms clear.
Southern Maryland
Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: high around 87°, sunny start with only a low (15%) isolated storm chance this afternoon — the driest slot in central Maryland today. South winds 3-8 mph. Lows near 73°, mostly clear overnight.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: high near 87°, patchy fog early clearing to a slight chance of storms (15%) this afternoon. South winds 5-10 mph. Lows around 73° with partly cloudy skies tonight.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: high near 88° under sunny skies — essentially a dry day here, with only a 1% precip chance. South winds 1-9 mph. Lows around 73°, partly cloudy overnight.
Ocean City & the Coast
Worcester County: sunny and pleasant, high near 80° at the beach with southeast winds 5-10 mph. Surf around 2 feet, rip current risk LOW, water temperature in the upper 70s. UV index very high — reapply sunscreen more than you think you need to. Tides at the Ocean City Fishing Pier: high 9:36 AM, low 3:47 PM. Overnight lows near 71°, mostly clear.
Active Hazards
No watches, warnings, or advisories are active for Maryland at this time. One item worth flagging for boaters: a Small Craft Advisory is set to begin at 6 PM this evening and run through 2 AM Monday for the tidal Potomac and portions of the Chesapeake Bay (ANZ534, ANZ543) — southerly channeling winds gusting to 20 kt. If you’re out on the water this evening, plan around it.
Severe & Flooding Threat
Today’s severe threat is essentially nil — any storms that fire this afternoon will be isolated, slow to organize, and short-lived as they lose daytime heating near sunset. No flooding concerns today. That said, keep an eye on the forecast discussion’s flag for this week: confidence is growing in a multi-day severe weather threat Tuesday through Thursday as disturbances ride around a building heat ridge, with AI/ML guidance showing broadly elevated severe probabilities, especially midweek. We’ll have more on timing as that comes into focus.
Heat & Humidity
Dew points have climbed from the mid-50s yesterday into the mid-60s this morning, and they’ll push toward 70° by afternoon — the first genuinely sticky day in a while. No heat advisory criteria today, but this is the leading edge of a much bigger heat story: highs are expected to reach the low-to-mid 90s for much of Maryland through the work week, with upper 90s to near 100° possible midweek if clouds and storms don’t get in the way. Heat index values could approach advisory criteria (105-109 east of the mountains, 100-104 west) by midweek — we’ll be watching this closely.
Winds & Chesapeake Bay
Generally light today, south to southwest 3-10 mph inland, with coastal spots seeing gusts to near 13 mph. On the water, expect southerly channeling to build through the evening ahead of tonight’s Small Craft Advisory — 20 kt gusts possible on the Bay and tidal Potomac from 6 PM tonight through 2 AM Monday.
Tonight’s Lows by Zone
| Zone | Low |
| Western Mountains (Garrett) | Around 64° |
| Cumberland/Allegany | Around 68° |
| Hagerstown/Frederick/Carroll | Around 70° |
| Baltimore/DC Corridor | Low-to-mid 70s |
| Southern Maryland | Around 73° |
| Eastern Shore | Low-to-mid 70s |
| Ocean City | Around 71° |
Looking Ahead
Monday: Hotter still — 90-92° for central and western Maryland, 90° on the Shore, mid-80s at the coast. Isolated afternoon storms remain in play statewide (20-33% chances), with the coast picking up its own slight chance. Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger into the early morning hours.
Tuesday: The heat ridge really settles in — mid-90s to around 95-96° for the Baltimore/DC corridor, Frederick/Carroll, and Washington County; low-to-mid 90s on the Eastern Shore; upper 80s at Ocean City. A slight chance of afternoon storms lingers, with better organized severe potential building for Wednesday and Thursday as disturbances round the ridge. We’ll keep tracking it.
Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your director’s cut for Maryland weather, every morning. Stay dry, stay cool, and we’ll see you this evening.