Good morning. NWS Baltimore/Washington (issued 3:59 AM), Mount Holly (4:23 AM), and Wakefield (3:00 AM) are all singing variations of the same late-summer tune today: scattered afternoon thunderstorms in a hot, sticky airmass, with the real headline being what’s stacking up behind it. This week is trending toward one of the hottest stretches of the year — lower-to-middle 90s area-wide by Tuesday, with talk of upper 90s to near 100° by Wednesday/Thursday and a legitimate chance of Heat Advisories. Today itself is the relatively tame appetizer: warm, humid, and just unsettled enough for a stray downpour, mainly north and west.
Timing: Today’s Storm Window
Morning (6 AM–Noon): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny, muggy, dry for most. A stray shower can’t be ruled out, especially west.
Afternoon (Noon–6 PM): The main convective window, roughly 2–8 PM. Scattered showers and isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms fire up, with the best coverage across the northern half of the state — Frederick/Carroll/Washington counties and points north — as clusters slide southeast out of Pennsylvania. The Blue Ridge terrain in Western Maryland could also spark something on its own.
Evening (6–10 PM): Storms wane quickly after sunset; activity should be mostly wrapped up by mid-evening, lingering latest across the eastern counties.
Overnight: Any leftover activity fades, skies partly clearing behind it, and it stays warm and humid.
Region by Region
Western Maryland
Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): High around 80° — comfortable by summer standards up at elevation — with a slight chance of showers early giving way to isolated afternoon/evening storms (20%). Winds light out of the southwest. Overnight low near 67°.
Allegany County (Cumberland): Warmer at 88°, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon into evening (30%). Winds light south. Low tonight near 69°.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): High 88°, mostly cloudy start, scattered storm chances build to 40% this afternoon and evening — this corridor has one of the better shots at a rumble of thunder today. Low near 72° overnight, still muggy.
Frederick & Carroll Counties: Also around 88° with a 40% storm chance, favoring afternoon-into-evening development as clusters track down from Pennsylvania. Overnight low near 72°.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County / Harford / Howard / Anne Arundel: High 89°, east winds around 6 mph, isolated storm chances (20%) mainly this afternoon into evening after a mostly sunny-to-cloudy start. Muggy, low around 75° tonight with a slight chance of lingering showers.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties: High 89°, mostly sunny early then scattered showers/storms developing (40%) — this area shares the better northern-tier storm chances. Low tonight 74°, storms lingering into the evening hours.
Southern Maryland
Charles, Calvert & St. Mary’s Counties: High 89°, mostly sunny morning then scattered afternoon/evening storms (40%). Winds light north becoming south. Low near 74°, storm chances continuing into the evening before tapering off.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot & Caroline Counties: High near 89°, isolated rain showers possible through the day (20%), light north winds. Low 74° with a slight chance of a stray evening storm. Cecil in particular sits closest to the northern storm track tonight per the LWX discussion — keep an eye skyward toward dusk.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester, Wicomico & Somerset Counties: High 90°, partly sunny morning transitioning to a better chance (29%) of afternoon/evening showers and storms — highest coverage odds on the Shore today. Low around 74° tonight, storm chance easing to 16%.
Ocean City & the Coast
Worcester County: High in the mid 80s (83° gridpoint), partly sunny early with a chance of showers/storms developing (28%) in the afternoon. Winds southwest 5-8 mph, becoming southeast. Surf: around 2 feet, rip current risk is low, water temps in the mid 70s, UV index high. Tides at the Ocean City Fishing Pier: high 10:19 AM, low 4:35 PM. Low tonight near 75°, storm chance dropping to about 19% with partial clearing.
Active Hazards
No active watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Maryland at this time. LWX’s Hazardous Weather Outlook (5:04 AM) confirms no hazardous weather expected today or tonight for the Baltimore/Washington/Chesapeake Bay area. Enjoy the calm — it likely won’t last past midweek.
Severe & Flooding Outlook
Today’s storms are expected to be garden-variety: instability is modest and lapse rates aren’t great, but precipitable water values are high enough to support brief heavy downpours, especially north of the DC-Baltimore corridor and toward the Pennsylvania line. Isolated localized flooding in a heavy-downpour cell is possible, but nothing widespread. The bigger story is Wednesday and Thursday, when NWS Baltimore/Washington flags an increasing risk of organized, potentially significant severe thunderstorm clusters as a Canadian upper trough breaks down the building heat ridge. Timing and placement remain genuinely uncertain at this range — we’ll sharpen details as the week goes on, but pencil in mid-to-late week as the period to watch most closely.
Heat & Humidity
Today is the mild version of what’s coming — upper 80s to near 90° with typical late-summer humidity, nothing advisory-worthy yet. That changes fast: Tuesday pushes into the mid-90s for the I-95 corridor and DC suburbs (96° at the Baltimore gridpoint), with Wednesday and Thursday bringing talk of upper 90s to near 100° regionwide and heat index values potentially reaching the 100-105° range, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Heat Advisories are looking increasingly likely for at least part of the state by midweek. Overnight lows won’t offer much relief either, with some spots barely dropping into the upper 70s Wednesday night.
Winds & Bay/Marine
Winds today are generally light, 5 mph or less across most of the state, shifting from north/northeast in the morning to south/southeast by afternoon — nothing that will stir up much chop on the Bay. No marine hazards are posted for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal Potomac, or coastal waters at this time. Any thunderstorm that develops could produce brief, locally gusty winds, but widespread wind issues aren’t expected.
Tonight’s Lows by Zone
| Zone | Low |
| Western Mountains (Garrett) | ~67° |
| Cumberland/Hagerstown | ~69-72° |
| Frederick/Carroll | ~72° |
| Baltimore/DC Corridor | ~74-75° |
| Southern Maryland | ~74° |
| Eastern Shore | ~74-75° |
| Ocean City | ~75° |
Looking Ahead
Tuesday: Hotter and more humid, with highs surging into the mid 90s for the Baltimore-DC corridor and central Maryland (96° at the Baltimore gridpoint), low-to-mid 90s for Washington/Frederick/Carroll, and a bit cooler in the mountains (83°). Scattered thunderstorm chances climb to 40-50%, best late afternoon into evening, with northeastern Maryland at greatest risk as storms drop south out of Pennsylvania. Heat index values could approach the upper 90s to low 100s.
Wednesday: Near-record early-September heat is possible, with highs flirting with the upper 90s to near 100° in spots (95° at the Allegany gridpoint alone), and organized, potentially severe thunderstorm chances increasing as a Canadian trough starts to erode the ridge. This is shaping up to be the more consequential severe weather day — stay tuned as confidence builds.
Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your county-by-county Maryland forecast, every morning. Stay cool out there, and watch the skies build toward midweek.