Good evening, Maryland. Tonight is the calm before a genuinely wild week. NWS Baltimore/Washington (2:04 PM update, tonight’s Hazardous Weather Outlook 4:05 PM) says the shower and thunderstorm chances that flirted with us today have shifted south, so we’re left with a muggy, mostly cloudy night and not much else. NWS Wakefield (3:21 PM) is still watching a stray shower or rumble down toward the lower Eastern Shore and Southern Maryland early this evening, and NWS Mount Holly (5:37 PM) notes any lingering activity up in Cecil County should fizzle out well before dawn. The bigger story: near-record September heat is bearing down starting tomorrow, with highs flirting with 100° by Wednesday and Thursday in spots. Tonight is just the quiet setup.
Tonight’s Timeline
- Evening (now–9 PM): A few lingering showers, mainly across the lower Eastern Shore (Wicomico/Somerset/Worcester) where a Flood Advisory and Special Weather Statement remain in effect. Elsewhere, just increasing clouds and mugginess.
- Late evening (9 PM–midnight): Any remaining showers dissipate area-wide. Skies turn mostly cloudy, air stays thick and humid.
- Overnight (midnight–dawn): Quiet but sticky. Patchy fog possible in low-lying valleys of Western Maryland and along Eastern Shore creeks and marshes, though confidence is low enough that it’s not in the official forecast — just don’t be shocked by a soupy morning drive.
County-by-County Tonight
Western Maryland
Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): Low near 66° — comfortably the coolest spot in the state tonight, partly cloudy skies, light southwest breeze 2-6 mph, just a 10% chance of a stray shower. Good sleeping weather up in the mountains.
Allegany (Cumberland): Low around 70°, mostly cloudy, winds light out of the west near 3 mph, 9% precip chance. Muggier than Garrett, as usual for the valley floor.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): Low near 70°, a lingering 21% chance of showers/storms early before clouds settle in for the rest of the night. Winds light out of the south.
Frederick & Carroll: Low around 71°, an 18% shower/storm chance early evening tapering to mostly cloudy skies overnight. Winds calm to light southwest.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County: Low near 75° — the warmest overnight low in the corridor, reflecting all that urban humidity. Slight (15%) chance of a stray shower early, then mostly cloudy. Light southwest wind.
Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: Tracking with the Baltimore gridpoint — lows in the mid-70s, muggy, mostly cloudy, winds light and variable out of the southwest.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery & Prince George’s: Low around 73°, an 18% shower/storm chance early evening before clouds dominate the rest of the night. Winds light out of the south around 5 mph.
Southern Maryland
Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: Low near 73°, mostly cloudy with an 18% chance of a passing shower, especially near the Bay early on. Light south wind around 5 mph — no real relief from the mugginess.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: Low around 74°, a 20% shower/storm chance early before clouds take over. Light south winds near 5 mph. Any thunder that developed up near Cecil this afternoon should be long gone by midnight.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: Low near 74°, still a 26% chance of showers/storms lingering into the evening — this is the zone under both a Special Weather Statement and a Flood Advisory tonight (details below). Some ponding on roadways is possible before things dry out toward midnight.
Ocean City & the Coast
Worcester County: Low near 74°, an 18% chance of a lingering shower early, then partly cloudy skies develop. Winds south around 7 mph. Surf around 2 feet Tuesday with a Low rip current risk, high tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier at 11:04 AM, low at 5:26 PM. Comfortable beach conditions return quickly once tonight’s clouds clear out.
Active Hazards
Special Weather Statement (Moderate): Wicomico and Somerset counties — issued for showers/storms capable of brief heavy downpours moving through the lower Shore this evening.
Flood Advisory (Minor): Somerset, Wicomico, and Worcester counties — minor flooding possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas from heavy rain associated with this evening’s showers. Watch for standing water on roads, especially in Salisbury, Pocomoke City, and surrounding low ground.
No watches or warnings are in effect anywhere else in Maryland tonight — the rest of the state is quiet on the hazards front.
Severe Weather & Flooding Outlook
Tonight itself is low-risk: any shower activity is confined mainly to the lower Eastern Shore and is expected to wind down by midnight. The bigger concern is what’s coming. NWS Baltimore/Washington is flagging Tuesday afternoon/evening as the next flashpoint, with SPC outlining a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms across the northeastern part of the forecast area, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) further south. Storms should hold off until after peak daytime heat Tuesday, which may blunt the worst of it, but strong to severe storms remain possible with damaging wind gusts the main concern given a hot, humid, unstable airmass. SPC keeps a Slight Risk in play Wednesday through Friday too, as one shortwave after another rotates through — confidence on exact timing and location is still low this far out, but Thursday is emerging as a favored day for the most robust severe potential. Flash flooding is also a slow-building concern by midweek as PWATs climb and rounds of storms repeat over similar areas.
Heat & Humidity
Tonight is just a preview. Dew points sitting in the upper 60s to low 70s are keeping the air heavy even after sunset — lows only in the low-to-mid 70s across most of the state won’t offer much of a reset. Starting Tuesday, a strong ridge builds in from the southern Plains, and both NWS Baltimore/Washington and NWS Wakefield are talking near-record early-September heat. Highs push into the low-to-mid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, with some spots — especially closer to DC and southern Maryland — flirting with the upper 90s to near 100° by Thursday. Heat index values climb right alongside: upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday, a widespread 100-105° Wednesday, and 103-105° Thursday in the most humid pockets. Heat headlines are likely to be issued later this week — keep an eye on weather.gov.
Winds & Chesapeake Bay / Marine
Winds tonight are light across the board — generally south to southwest at 3 to 7 mph, occasionally calm. No marine hazards are posted for the Bay, Tidal Potomac, or coastal waters tonight; conditions should stay benign for boaters heading into the overnight hours.
Overnight Lows by Zone
| Zone | Low |
| Western Mountains (Garrett) | 66° |
| Cumberland / Hagerstown | 70° |
| Frederick / Carroll | 71° |
| Baltimore / DC Corridor | 73-75° |
| Southern Maryland | 73° |
| Eastern Shore (both) | 74° |
| Ocean City | 74° |
Looking Ahead
Tuesday: Hot and increasingly humid, with highs from the mid-80s in Garrett County to the mid-90s across central Maryland and the DC suburbs. Partly sunny skies give way to a slight chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, some possibly strong given SPC’s Slight Risk over the northeastern part of the state. Coastal areas stay a bit cooler with highs in the upper 80s in Ocean City.
Wednesday: Another scorcher — mid-80s in the mountains, low-to-mid 90s almost everywhere else, with heat index values climbing into the 100-105° range in many spots. Scattered afternoon/evening storms remain possible, with a better chance overnight into Wednesday night (up to 45% in the Baltimore area) as a wetter pattern takes hold.
Beyond that: the heat holds through Thursday with a run at record territory, before a cold front finally works through Friday night into the weekend, dropping temperatures back to more seasonable levels by Sunday.
Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts (MDWA) — stay cool, stay dry, we’ll see you back here in the morning.