Good morning. Today is shaping up to be the hottest day of the week statewide, per NWS Baltimore/Washington’s 4:05 AM discussion — westerly downslope flow means compressional warming and drying, pushing highs into the low-to-mid 90s across central Maryland with plenty of sunshine. The catch comes late: NWS Mount Holly’s 4:44 AM update flags scattered thunderstorms developing this evening across the Mid-Atlantic, with a cluster expected to slide into northeast Maryland overnight — some of it capable of strong gusts. Otherwise, today itself stays dry through the afternoon almost everywhere.
Timing At a Glance
- Morning: Patchy fog possible in spots (Frederick/Carroll, Baltimore corridor, western mountains), otherwise clear-to-mostly-cloudy skies and comfortable start.
- Midday–afternoon: Sunshine builds, temperatures climb fast, essentially rain-free across central and eastern Maryland. Far western Maryland (Garrett/Allegany) sees a better shot at scattered showers/storms by afternoon.
- Evening (6–10 PM): A cluster of showers/storms tracking down from southeast Pennsylvania begins clipping northeast Maryland — Cecil, Harford, into the Baltimore metro’s fringes. Guidance suggests this activity will be weakening, likely sub-severe, but a gusty downpour is possible.
- Overnight: Showers/storms linger or redevelop, especially north and west, before tapering toward daybreak Wednesday.
Western Maryland
Garrett County (Deep Creek / Oakland): High around 80° (upper 70s to near 80), with patchy morning fog giving way to a 37% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. Winds west 6–13 mph. Overnight low near 66°, still a 35% storm chance lingering. Mountain-top humidity keeps it feeling sticky despite the cooler numbers.
Allegany County (Cumberland): High near 89° (upper 80s), mostly dry through midday with a 32% chance of afternoon showers/storms sliding in. Winds light, west 2–12 mph. Overnight low around 73° with a 30% continued shower/storm chance — the warmest overnight readings of the western zone.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): High around 91°, mostly sunny for most of the day with only a slight (20%) chance of a late-day storm. Winds southwest to west, 2–13 mph. Overnight low near 74° — muggy and quiet, aside from a 24% slight chance of showers.
Frederick & Carroll Counties: High near 91°, sunny start with patchy fog burning off, a slight (20%) storm chance developing late afternoon/evening. Winds light out of the west. Overnight low around 74°, humid, 24% chance of lingering showers. This is one of the corridors that could catch the edge of tonight’s PA-driven cluster.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: High around 94° — the warmest number on the board today — under mostly sunny skies, winds light out of the west (3–10 mph). This is the zone most likely to feel tonight’s incoming storm cluster from the northeast, with a 49% chance of showers/thunderstorms overnight as the PA line drops south, especially Harford and northern Baltimore County. Overnight low near 76°, one of the warmest overnight readings anywhere in the state — another entry for the record-warm-minimum ledger NWS mentioned this week.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties: High near 92°, mostly sunny, winds west 3–10 mph. A slight (20%) chance of a late-day storm, mainly north and west toward the Frederick line. Overnight low around 76°, warm and humid with a 24% shower chance.
Southern Maryland
Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: High near 92°, mostly sunny, winds southwest 3–8 mph. Same slight (20%) late-day storm chance as the DC suburbs. Overnight low around 75° with a 36% chance of showers/storms developing overnight as the boundary settles nearby — the muggiest stretch of the night for this zone.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: High near 93°, mostly sunny with light southwest winds (0–5 mph). Slight (20%) storm chance late day, but Cecil County sits closest to tonight’s incoming cluster tracking down from southeast Pennsylvania — a 31% chance of showers/storms overnight, highest of the Shore counties. Overnight low near 75°.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: High near 92°, mostly sunny, and comparatively storm-free today — only a 9% precip chance. Light southwest winds 2–8 mph. Overnight low around 75° with a slightly higher 26% shower/storm chance as the evening system brushes the region.
Ocean City & the Coast
Worcester County / Ocean City: A noticeably cooler beach day with a backdoor influence keeping the high around 86° (upper 80s per the surf zone forecast). Mostly sunny, southwest winds 5–10 mph. Surf around 2 feet, rip current risk Low, UV Index Very High — sunscreen matters more than the surf today. Water temps in the upper 70s. Max heat index up to 102 despite the milder air temp, so hydrate on the sand. High tide at Ocean City Fishing Pier 11:04 AM, low tide 5:26 PM. Overnight low near 76° with a 26% chance of evening/overnight showers as the same disturbance skirts the coast. Wednesday trends cooler still — low 80s, moderate rip current risk, northeast winds.
Active Hazards
No active watches, warnings, or advisories are currently posted for Maryland. Nearby, Philadelphia’s urban corridor is under a Heat Advisory today (noon–8 PM) per NWS Mount Holly, and Virginia’s AKQ area is tracking heat advisory potential later this week — neither currently extends into Maryland, but it underscores how close conditions are running to advisory thresholds. NWS Baltimore/Washington notes forecast heat indices should stay just shy of Heat Advisory criteria here today.
Severe & Flooding Outlook
Today’s severe risk is essentially nil through the afternoon, per NWS Baltimore/Washington — the ridge overhead suppresses daytime convection. The focus shifts to tonight, when a weakening cluster of showers and storms tracks from southeast Pennsylvania into northeast Maryland. Confidence is that this activity will be sub-severe by the time it arrives, but a gusty downpour is possible, mainly Cecil, Harford, and northern Baltimore County. The bigger severe weather story is building for Wednesday into Thursday: a stalled boundary may spark scattered storms Wednesday (highest chance north-central MD), followed by a more organized severe risk Thursday as a cold front pushes in from the Great Lakes with strengthening mid-level flow — damaging wind gusts and hail will need to be watched closely.
Heat & Humidity
Today is the hottest day of the week thanks to downslope drying, with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across the Baltimore-DC corridor and Eastern Shore, mid-to-upper 80s in the mountains. Humidity keeps things feeling sticky, though NWS forecasters expect heat indices to stay just under Heat Advisory criteria in Maryland today. The bigger story is overnight: minimum temperatures are running warm enough that record high minimums are considered likely this week across the region — muggy nights with lows only easing into the mid-to-upper 70s across central Maryland.
Winds & Chesapeake Bay / Marine
Winds are generally light today, southwest to west in the 3–13 mph range across most of the state, with near-calm conditions on the Eastern Shore. NWS’s Hazardous Weather Outlook notes that tonight’s thunderstorms may be capable of producing strong wind gusts on the Bay and tidal Potomac — boaters on the Chesapeake north of Pooles Island, the Patapsco/Baltimore Harbor, and the tidal Potomac should keep an eye on the evening sky and have a plan to get off the water if storms approach.
Tonight’s Lows by Zone
| Zone | Low |
| Western Mountains (Garrett) | ~66° |
| Cumberland/Allegany | ~73° |
| Hagerstown/Frederick/Carroll | ~72-74° |
| Baltimore/DC Corridor | ~76° |
| Southern Maryland | ~75° |
| Eastern Shore | ~74-75° |
| Ocean City | ~76° |
Looking Ahead
Wednesday: Highs ease a few degrees in most spots (upper 80s to low 90s inland, 80s on the Shore, low 80s at the beach) but uncertainty is high on thunderstorm timing as a stalled boundary lingers across north-central Maryland — some guidance shows an early-day complex, others later. Chance of showers/storms runs 30-50% across the western and central counties. Thursday: A cold front dropping out of the Great Lakes likely ignites a more organized round of storms, with severe potential increasing given stronger mid-level flow — highs still near 90-93° inland ahead of the front. Confidence in a legitimate severe setup is growing for Thursday afternoon/evening.
Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your full-county Maryland forecast, every morning. Stay cool, stay dry when you can, and keep an eye on the sky tonight up north.