Good morning, Maryland. NWS Baltimore/Washington (4:00 AM update) and NWS Mount Holly (4:28 AM) are both watching the same pattern today: a stalled backdoor front draped across the state, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms riding along it through the afternoon and again overnight. It’s not a washout day, but it’s a day where you keep an eye on the radar rather than the clock. Meanwhile, NWS Wakefield’s heat advisory language is the bigger headline for tomorrow — Thursday looks like the hottest, most humid day of the stretch, with heat index values near or above 100° possible inland.
No watches, warnings, or advisories are active for Maryland at the time of this writing — but that’s likely to change by this afternoon or tomorrow as the heat and storm threats sharpen.
Timing: Hour by Hour
- Early morning (now–9 AM): A small cluster of showers/storms that formed over south-central Pennsylvania overnight is sliding into far northern Maryland. Patchy fog possible on the Upper Shore.
- Mid-morning through midday: Mostly dry lull for many areas, though clouds increase from the north and east as that backdoor front noses south through the DC suburbs and Southern Maryland.
- Afternoon (1–7 PM): First real round of showers and thunderstorms fires, mainly central and northern Maryland — Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore metro, the DC suburbs. A few could turn strong to marginally severe with gusty winds.
- Evening into overnight (8 PM–Thursday sunrise): A second, potentially more organized round of storms moves through, tracking northeast along and north of the front. This is the round most likely to include a damaging wind gust or two, and it could run late — well past midnight into early Thursday.
Region by Region
Western Maryland
Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 84° — low-to-mid 80s, winds light out of the west 5-9 mph. Showers and storms possible 40% of the day, best chance afternoon into evening as the mountains often see storms fire first. Overnight lows near 68°.
Allegany (Cumberland): Warmer and more humid, high near 91° — upper 80s to low 90s. Southwest winds light. 40% storm chance, with any storm capable of a quick downpour. Lows near 71° tonight, another mild, sticky night.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): High near 88° — mid-to-upper 80s, winds light and variable. 50% chance of showers/storms this afternoon, continuing into the evening (60% overnight). Lows near 72°.
Frederick & Carroll: Same story — high near 88°, 50% storm chance this afternoon, rising to 60% tonight as the second round arrives. Lows near 72-74°. Farm country and the orchards along Catoctin Mountain could see locally heavy downpours.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: High near 85° — mid-80s, east winds 3-8 mph keeping things a touch cooler near the Bay. 50% storm chance this afternoon, jumping to 70% tonight — the overnight round looks like the more organized threat for the metro. Lows only near 75°, muggy and mild. Commuters: watch for ponding on I-95 and the Beltway during any downpour, and a stray downed limb isn’t out of the question if a storm clips a neighborhood hard.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery & Prince George’s: High near 86°, northeast winds 3-8 mph. 60% chance of storms today, 70% tonight — this corridor sits right along that backdoor front, so expect the widest variety of outcomes, from a quick pop-up to a longer-duration storm complex overnight. Lows near 73°.
Southern Maryland
Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: High near 86°, northeast winds 5-8 mph. Storm chances lower this afternoon (50%, slight chance category) but rising to 70% overnight. Lows near 74°. This is also heat advisory territory per Wakefield’s issuance — today’s heat index runs hot, and Thursday looks hotter still, with heat index values near or above 100° in play, so if you’re outdoors working or playing today, don’t wait for tomorrow’s advisory to start taking it seriously.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: Patchy fog early, then high near 88°, light northeast winds. Only a slight chance of storms today (23%), rising to near 47% tonight. Lows near 72-74°.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: High near 85°, light northeast winds. Storm chance stays low today (19%) but climbs into tonight (32% then better chances after midnight). Lows near 73°. Thursday’s forecast high near 95° here is among the warmest numbers on the board for the state — Salisbury area residents should brace for a scorcher tomorrow.
Ocean City & the Coast
Worcester County: A cooler, foggier day at the beach — high only near 79°, upper 70s, with northeast winds 7-10 mph off a relatively cool ocean. Just a slight chance of showers (19%), better chance tonight (31%). Surf running 2 to 3 feet, rip current risk LOW today. Water temps in the upper 70s. High tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier is 11:53 AM. UV index is HIGH, so despite the milder air temps, sun protection still matters under any sunny breaks. Thursday brings a warm-up to the upper 80s at the coast with rip current risk rising to MODERATE and a max heat index up to 102 — a different beach day entirely.
Active Hazards
No watches, warnings, or advisories are active for Maryland as of this writing. That said, NWS Baltimore/Washington has already flagged a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today, and Heat Advisories are increasingly likely to be issued for Thursday across the southern half of the forecast area — keep tabs on updates through the day.
Severe & Flooding
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected today through Friday as upper-level disturbances track from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Confidence in exact timing is low, but two rounds look most likely today: one this afternoon and a stronger, potentially longer-lived one late tonight into early Thursday morning. Because record warm, humid air is in place, storms may stay strong well into the overnight hours rather than weakening at sunset — that’s an unusual and noteworthy setup. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern; large hail is possible but a secondary threat. Locally heavy downpours could produce ponding on roadways, especially in the Baltimore-Washington corridor where the atmosphere is most unstable.
Heat & Humidity
Yesterday set record high minimum (overnight low) temperatures at Dulles, Reagan National, and Hagerstown — a sign of just how much moisture and heat are locked into the atmosphere. Today stays hot and humid across the board, with the heat index highest across Southern Maryland and the lower Eastern Shore. Thursday is the peak day regionally, with heat index values near or above 100° for Maryland — NWS Wakefield notes their own area, mainly Virginia’s piedmont, could see values approaching or at 105° through the rest of the week, but for Maryland specifically the guidance points to heat index near or above 100°. Expect Heat Advisories to expand northward as Thursday approaches.
Winds & Chesapeake Bay
Winds stay generally light today, under 10 knots outside of thunderstorms, shifting from northeast to southeast through the day as the backdoor front settles in. Boaters on the Bay and tidal Potomac should watch for Small Craft Advisories to be issued later today and tonight as storms move through — gusty, erratic winds under any thunderstorm cell are the main marine hazard, not the ambient breeze.
Overnight Lows by Zone
| Zone | Low Tonight |
| Western Mountains (Garrett) | ~68° |
| Cumberland/Hagerstown | ~71-72° |
| Frederick/Carroll | ~72-74° |
| Baltimore/DC Corridor | ~73-76° |
| Southern Maryland | ~74° |
| Eastern Shore | ~72-74° |
| Ocean City | ~74° |
Looking Ahead
Thursday is the hot one — highs pushing into the low-to-mid 90s across central Maryland (Baltimore near 92°, DC suburbs near 91°), and a scorching 94-95° on the mid/lower Eastern Shore. Heat Advisories look increasingly likely, with heat index values near or above 100° in spots. Scattered storms remain possible, some again capable of turning severe. Friday brings the best chance yet for widespread showers and storms (up to 82% in Garrett County, generally 40-60% elsewhere) as a cold front finally approaches — but temperatures stay warm ahead of it, with highs still in the upper 80s to low 90s for most of the state. By Saturday, relief arrives: highs drop into the mid-80s, humidity eases, and the front clears the area, setting up a much more comfortable Labor Day weekend with lower dewpoints and mostly dry conditions by Monday.
MD Weather Alerts — your county-by-county guide to Maryland’s skies, every morning and every time it matters.