MD Weather Alerts

MORNING EDITION · Thursday, September 10, 2026

The Big Picture

Good morning, Maryland. A cold front is the whole story today — NWS Baltimore/Washington (issued 3:56 AM) and Mount Holly (3:16 AM) both flag it as the trigger for a warm, muggy afternoon that turns showery and stormy by evening. NWS Wakefield (2:56 AM), which watches our lower Eastern Shore, has added a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for a few strong to severe storms tonight into early Friday. It won’t be a washout day — mornings look dry and warm just about everywhere — but have the umbrella within reach by mid-afternoon.

Hour-by-Hour Timing

• 6 AM – Noon: Dry and warming for nearly all of Maryland. A stray sprinkle can’t be ruled out over the far western mountains early, remnants of overnight showers that fell apart approaching Garrett County.
• Noon – 4 PM: Building heat and humidity statewide. Showers begin firing along and ahead of the front over the western counties (Garrett, Allegany, Washington) by mid-afternoon.
• 4 PM – 9 PM: The main line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms pushes into Frederick, Carroll, the Baltimore/DC corridor, and points east. A stronger, possibly briefly rotating storm can’t be ruled out near the front, mainly toward central Virginia and southern Maryland.
• 9 PM – Overnight: Showers and thunderstorms spread across the Bay, Southern Maryland, and both shores overnight into early Friday, with the higher-end (severe-marginal) chances focused on the Lower Eastern Shore and southern counties per NWS Wakefield.
• Friday AM: Lingering showers, patchy dense fog possible behind the front before slow clearing.

County-by-County Breakdown

Western Maryland

Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): High around 74°, staying in the low-mid 70s — coolest spot in the state again. Winds west 6-9 mph. Rain showers likely this morning, becoming a slight chance of showers and storms this afternoon (60% today, 75% tonight). Patchy fog develops overnight as temps fall to near 60°. Grab a light jacket for the evening if you’re headed to Deep Creek.
Allegany (Cumberland): High near 86°, wind west 3-8 mph. Chance of showers this morning (30%), then a slight chance of storms this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms become likely tonight (66%) as the front pushes through, with lows near 64°.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington Co. (Hagerstown): High near 86°, west winds 3-8 mph. Rain chances near 37% today, mainly afternoon, then storms likely tonight (60%) with a low around 65°.
Frederick: High around 86°, similar setup — 31% shower chance today, jumping to 61% tonight as the front and any storms slide through. Low near 66°.
Carroll: Shares Frederick’s numbers almost exactly — mid-80s high, muggy, with the better rain and storm chances arriving after dark.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County: High near 89°, the warmest reading on the board for this zone, west wind around 8 mph. Only a slight (20%) shower chance this afternoon, but that jumps to 66% tonight as the front and any leftover thunderstorm activity move through. Low around 70°, still muggy.
Harford: Tracks with the Baltimore/Central MD grid — near 89° today, showers and storms more likely after dark, low around 70°.
Howard: Same story — upper 80s, humid, storm chances ramp up in the evening.
Anne Arundel: High near 89°, and note — a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Annapolis until 8 AM this morning for minor tidal flooding around the shoreline and low-lying roads. That advisory expires by mid-morning, then it’s onto the same warm, humid, front-driven setup as the rest of the metro.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery: High near 87°, west wind around 8 mph. Slight shower chance (18%) this afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms likely tonight (75%) — one of the higher overnight rain chances in the region. Low near 68°.
Prince George’s: Essentially matches Montgomery — upper 80s today, a wetter, stormier night with the front’s passage, low near 68°.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: High near 89°, mostly sunny with just a slight chance of a stray afternoon storm (15%). The real action arrives tonight — showers and thunderstorms with an 85% chance overnight, low around 68°. This is one of the zones NWS flagged for a possible stronger, briefly rotating storm near the front in the evening, so keep half an eye on the sky if you’re out on the water or the porch after dinner.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: High near 88° with mostly sunny skies and just a 5% rain chance today — the driest daytime forecast in the state. That changes fast tonight: showers and thunderstorms likely, with rain chances near 79% overnight into early Friday. Low around 69°, muggy.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: High near 89° and sunny for most of the day (only 3% rain chance). Tonight is when it turns — showers and thunderstorms likely (69%), low near 70°. This is the zone NWS Wakefield specifically flagged with the Marginal severe risk, so tonight’s storms here have the best shot at being on the stronger side, with gusty winds the main concern.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester/Ocean City: A genuinely nice beach day — sunny, high near 85° (the AKQ surf zone forecast calls for the upper 80s, so lean toward the warmer side of that mid-80s number), southwest wind 9-17 mph. Surf running 2 to 5 feet with a low rip current risk and water temps still in the upper 70s. High tide at the fishing pier hits 7:20 AM, low tide 1:34 PM. Clouds and shower/storm chances build in tonight (63%), with lows near 72°. If beach plans are flexible, today beats tomorrow — Friday brings a better chance of steady rain and lingering clouds at the coast.

Active Hazards

Coastal Flood Advisory (Minor) — Anne Arundel County, in effect until 8 AM this morning. Minor tidal flooding possible in Annapolis-area low-lying and shoreline locations. Should clear out uneventfully as tides recede this morning.

Small Craft Advisory — remains in effect for portions of the Chesapeake Bay per NWS Baltimore/Washington, with winds shifting west/northwest today as the front crosses, then north/east through Friday. A few Special Marine Warnings are possible with any strong thunderstorms, especially from the DC area south to Annapolis this afternoon and evening.

Severe & Flooding Threat

SPC and NWS Wakefield have introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe storms tonight into early Friday, focused on the northern half of the Wakefield forecast area — which for us means the Lower Eastern Shore and Southern Maryland waters. Instability is modest (SBCAPE 500-750 J/kg over Delmarva, slightly higher CAPE near 1000-1500 J/kg over central Virginia), but 20-25 knots of deep-layer shear will be in place, enough to support a few better-organized cells. Damaging wind and hail are the primary concerns; an isolated stronger, briefly rotating storm can’t be ruled out near the front’s wave, mainly from central Virginia into southern Maryland this evening. Locally heavy rain is possible over Delmarva given precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches — some ponding on roads is possible with the heavier cells, though no widespread flooding is expected at this time.

Heat, Humidity & Winds

Dewpoints climb into the upper 60s and low 70s today, and combined with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s (touching near 89° in the Baltimore and Southern Maryland zones), it’ll feel sticky by afternoon — expect that classic late-summer, air-you-can-wear humidity even though no heat advisory is in effect. Winds run generally west at 5-10 mph through the day, gusting higher near any thunderstorms this evening, then shifting northwest and eventually north/east behind the front Friday.

Zone	High Today	Low Tonight
Garrett (mountains)	74°	60°
Cumberland/Hagerstown	86°	64-65°
Frederick/Carroll	86°	66°
Baltimore/DC corridor	87-89°	68-70°
Southern MD	89°	68°
Eastern Shore	88-89°	69-70°
Ocean City	85°	72°

Looking Ahead

Friday: The front stalls nearby, so lingering showers are possible, especially over Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore where rain chances run 64-81%. Highs cool slightly into the upper 70s to low 80s, with patchy dense fog possible early behind tonight’s rain. Saturday: A drier start with rain chances generally in the 30-50% range statewide, aside from the western mountains where showers and thunderstorms are likely (85%) as another wave of moisture rolls through. Winds turn southerly, and southerly channeling on the Bay could bring Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday afternoon. Sunday brings another round of showers and storms as a weak front crosses, before a drier, more comfortable stretch settles in early next week.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
Stay dry out there, Maryland — MD Weather Alerts will have updates if that Marginal Risk starts to look more organized tonight.