Good morning. NWS Baltimore/Washington (issued 3:55 AM) and NWS Mount Holly (5:12 AM) both describe a similar arc for us today: a few lingering showers this morning as a cold front finally slides south of the Mason-Dixon Line, then breaks of sun and a genuinely pleasant afternoon. Don’t get too comfortable — both offices, plus NWS Wakefield, are flagging Saturday as the day to watch, with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall now posted for the I-95 corridor and points south as a slow-moving system parks a warm front and then a cold front right on top of us.
Timing At A Glance
- Early morning (now–9 AM): Scattered light showers, maybe an isolated rumble, mainly across northern/central Maryland as the front finishes sliding through. Nothing widespread or severe.
- Mid-morning into midday: Showers taper from north to south; skies slowly break.
- Afternoon: Clouds thin, some sunshine returns for most of the state. A stray shower can’t be fully ruled out over the western mountains/Potomac Highlands into evening.
- Tonight: Mostly cloudy, dry for most, patchy fog possible in the mountains and Potomac/Cumberland valleys.
- Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms redevelop and become likely area-wide, with a legitimate heavy-rain/flash-flood concern, especially I-95 corridor southward.
Region by Region
Western Maryland
Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 73° — mid 70s, coolest spot on the map as usual. Morning rain showers likely tapering to a slight chance of showers/storms, then mostly cloudy tonight with patchy fog and a low around 60°. Grab a light jacket if you’re out early on the lake.
Allegany (Cumberland): High around 81°, upper 70s to low 80s. Morning showers give way to a mostly cloudy afternoon. Low near 63° tonight with patchy fog settling into the valley overnight.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): High near 81°, upper 70s to low 80s, chance of morning showers then a mostly cloudy but drying afternoon. Low around 64° tonight.
Frederick: High around 80°, similar story — morning shower chance, clouds breaking for the afternoon, low near 65° tonight.
Carroll: Shares Frederick’s numbers, high near 80° with a lingering shower chance early, then a quieter, partly cloudy evening.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County: High near 82°, low-to-mid 80s. A slight chance of a lingering morning shower, then mostly cloudy skies with some clearing this afternoon. Low near 69° tonight — comfortable sleeping weather with the windows cracked.
Harford: Tracks with the Baltimore grid — high near 82°, breezy at times out of the northeast, drying out by afternoon.
Howard: Same pattern, high near 82°, morning shower chance fading into a mostly cloudy afternoon.
Anne Arundel: High near 82°, morning shower risk near the Bay, then improving skies for anyone heading to the water this afternoon.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery: High near 81°, rain showers likely early, mostly cloudy by afternoon. Low near 67° tonight with just a slight chance of a late shower.
Prince George’s: Same setup as Montgomery — high near 81°, morning showers likely, then a drier, cloud-streaked afternoon commute home.
Southern Maryland
Charles: High near 81°, chance of showers through the morning, then mostly cloudy. Low near 68° tonight.
Calvert: High near 81°, breezy north wind early, showers possible then tapering. This is also the zone NWS Wakefield flagged for possibly heftier, more moderate-intensity showers overnight into early morning — a soggier start than points north.
St. Mary’s: High near 81°, same southern-tier shower risk this morning before clouds thin out.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil: Tracking close to the Baltimore grid, high in the low-to-mid 80s, morning shower chance, clearing trend by afternoon.
Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: High near 82°, rain showers likely through midday with a breezy north wind (5-10 mph), then mostly cloudy skies settling in for the evening. Low near 66° tonight.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: High near 82°, a more modest chance of showers today than up-shore, breezy northerly wind. Low near 68° tonight, mostly cloudy.
Ocean City & the Coast
Worcester/Ocean City: High near 78°, partly sunny with just a slight chance of showers, breezy north wind 5-13 mph. Surf around 2 feet, low rip current risk today — a fairly benign beach day. Water temp upper 70s. High tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier at 8:07 AM, low tide 2:23 PM. Tonight mostly cloudy, low near 70°.
Active Hazards
No watches, warnings, or advisories are active for Maryland at this hour. The one item worth flagging early: WPC has introduced a Day 2 Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday–Saturday night, centered on the I-95 corridor and areas south, including the DC/Baltimore metro and Southern Maryland. This isn’t a warning yet, just a heads-up that flash flood products (advisories or warnings) are increasingly plausible tomorrow as heavy showers and storms redevelop.
Severe & Flooding Outlook
Today’s severe threat is essentially nil — CAPE values are modest and capped, so thunder, if any, will be an isolated afterthought rather than a real concern. Saturday is the day to watch closely: an elongated trough lifting out of the Tennessee Valley combines with precipitable water values near 1.75-2.00 inches and a deep warm cloud layer — a setup favoring efficient, heavy-rain-producing storms. High-resolution models are now showing potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain in 24 hours in spots, concentrated along and near I-95. Confidence in the general threat is decent; confidence in exactly which towns get the heaviest cores is still low this far out. We’ll have more specifics as Saturday approaches.
Heat, Humidity & Wind
Dew points remain elevated in the 70s behind this front, so it’ll feel sticky even with cloud cover keeping temperatures in check. Winds today generally light, out of the northeast at 5-10 mph, occasionally gustier near the Bay and coast. Nothing approaching advisory criteria.
Chesapeake Bay & Marine
As the front crosses the waters this morning, expect a shift to northerly winds by late morning, with some channeling effects producing gusts near 15 knots in spots on the Bay and tidal Potomac. No marine hazards are posted, but small craft should keep an eye on building southeast winds Saturday as the next system approaches.
Tonight’s Lows By Zone
| Zone | Low |
| Western mountains (Garrett) | Around 60° |
| Cumberland/Hagerstown | 63-64° |
| Frederick/Carroll | Around 65° |
| Baltimore/DC corridor | 67-69° |
| Southern MD | Around 68° |
| Eastern Shore | 66-68° |
| Ocean City | Around 70° |
Looking Ahead
Saturday brings the best (worst?) chance of steady rain and thunderstorms across the whole state, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s depending on location — warmest on the Eastern Shore and Cumberland valley, coolest in the mountains. Rain chances stay elevated Saturday night before a gradual clearing trend Sunday, when highs jump into the mid-to-upper 80s with a fair amount of sunshine, especially later in the day. Some residual shower activity is possible Sunday morning before things dry out. Early next week looks calmer and seasonably warm as high pressure builds back in, with the next cold front not expected until around midweek.
Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your county-by-county forecast, every morning, rain or shine (mostly rain this weekend). Stay dry out there.