Good morning, Maryland. Grab the coffee and maybe a second cup — today’s a long, muggy slog toward what’s shaping up to be a genuinely wet, thundery night statewide. NWS Baltimore/Washington (3:58 AM issuance) and NWS Mount Holly (3:16 AM) are both eyeing a stalled frontal boundary and a developing area of low pressure that will lift north through the region tonight into Sunday morning, dragging tropical moisture (precipitable water values pushing 2 to 2.25 inches) right over already-saturated ground. NWS Wakefield, watching our southern counties, echoes the same story: numerous showers and thunderstorms with localized heavy rain today into tonight, easing into a drier, cooler pattern by Monday.
Timing: Hour by Hour
- Early morning (now–10 AM): A thick stratus deck has moved in overnight, with patchy fog lingering in low-lying and mountain spots. Mostly dry for now, just gray and muggy with dew points already in the 60s.
- Late morning–early afternoon (10 AM–2 PM): Widely scattered, disorganized showers pop up, mainly nuisance-level, as low-level moisture increases ahead of the front.
- Afternoon (2–6 PM): Showers and a few thunderstorms become more numerous, especially western Maryland, as the warm front lifts north.
- Evening (6–10 PM): This is the window to watch. High-resolution models show more organized storm clusters forming over West Virginia into the Alleghenies (4–8 PM), while a second focus develops along the I-95 corridor as the warm conveyor belt fires up. Some torrential downpours possible with slow-moving cells.
- Overnight (10 PM–5 AM Sunday): Showers and thunderstorms likely for most of the state, with the heaviest complex expected to slide into northeast Maryland around 3–5 AM Sunday. Localized flash flooding is possible where storms train or stall — soils are already saturated. Patchy fog develops behind the heavier rain.
Region by Region
Western Maryland
Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 78°, patchy fog burning off into showers and thunderstorms (67% chance) developing through the afternoon. Winds light out of the southeast around 5 mph. Overnight low near 61° with a high (85%) chance of more showers — this is your soggiest overnight zone.
Allegany County (Cumberland): High around 82° — upper 70s to mid 80s — with a 79% chance of showers and thunderstorms after morning fog clears. Tonight’s the big one here: showers and storms likely (90%), low near 66°. Some cells could be locally heavy given the Allegheny Front focus mentioned by forecasters.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): High near 82°, mostly cloudy with a slight chance of afternoon storms (47%), but tonight ramps up sharply to an 87% chance of showers and thunderstorms with patchy fog following. Low around 67°.
Frederick County: High around 82°, mostly cloudy trending to scattered storms (30% today). Overnight, chances jump to 88% with a low near 68° — plan for a wet, rumbly night.
Carroll County: Sharing Frederick’s numbers closely — low-to-mid 80s today, upper 60s tonight with the same high overnight storm coverage.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County: High near 83°, mostly cloudy with only a slight afternoon storm chance (20%) — the real action holds off until tonight, when a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms takes over with patchy fog after. Low around 72°, muggy and unsettled.
Harford County: Tracking with the Baltimore grid — low 80s today, low-to-mid 70s tonight, same 90% overnight storm coverage. This area sits right in that I-95 corridor convective zone forecasters flagged — some downpours could be intense.
Howard County: Same setup — mid 80s today, upper 60s to low 70s overnight, high storm coverage after dark.
Anne Arundel County: High near 83°, similar timeline, with Bay-adjacent humidity keeping things sticky through the evening before storms fire.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery County: High around 82°, mostly cloudy with a slight chance of afternoon storms (23%), then an 82% overnight chance with a low near 68°.
Prince George’s County: Nearly identical — low 80s today, upper 60s overnight, same unsettled evening-into-night pattern with locally heavy downpour potential.
Southern Maryland
Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary’s Counties: High near 82°, chance of showers and storms through the afternoon (41%), rising to 84% tonight with a low around 69°. Humid and unsettled with patchy fog developing after the rain moves through.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, and Caroline Counties: High near 83°, patchy morning fog giving way to a slight chance of afternoon storms (21%). Tonight ramps to 87% with a low around 72° — expect a genuinely stormy night on the Upper Shore, with activity continuing into Sunday morning as the low lifts north.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester, Wicomico, and Somerset Counties: High near 82°, partly sunny with just a slight afternoon shower chance (15%) — the driest daytime stretch on the board today. But tonight flips the script: 79% chance of showers and thunderstorms, low around 72°, muggy and unsettled straight through to Sunday’s likely storms.
Ocean City & the Coast
Worcester County: High in the upper 70s, partly sunny with just a 9% shower chance today — actually the calmest daytime read in the state. Winds east to southeast 9 to 14 mph. Tonight, though, showers and thunderstorms move in (75% chance), low around 73°. Surf and beach: a Moderate Rip Current Risk is in effect from 8 AM through this evening — surf running 2 to 3 feet, water in the upper 70s, UV Index High. High tide at Ocean City Fishing Pier is 8:52 AM, low tide 3:09 PM. Swim near a guard, and respect the flags today.
Active Hazards
As of this writing, there are no active watches, warnings, or advisories for Maryland. That said, a Flood Watch is already up for parts of southeast Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, and New Jersey for late tonight into Sunday morning, and both Baltimore/Washington and Mount Holly forecasters explicitly note a Flood Watch could be issued for Maryland later today once the midday model cycle comes in. The Moderate Rip Current Risk for Ocean City beaches (8 AM through this evening) is currently the only formal coastal advisory. We’ll flag any new watches the moment they’re issued.
Severe Weather & Flooding Threat
The main concern tonight isn’t so much severe wind or hail as it is slow-moving, heavy-rain-producing storms over already-saturated soils. Two zones of concern: storms forming over the Alleghenies and pushing into Garrett and Allegany Counties during the 4–8 PM window, and a separate cluster developing along the I-95 corridor into the evening as the warm front lifts through. How these two areas of storms interact will determine whether isolated flash flooding materializes — confidence on exact placement is still only moderate, but the ingredients (PWATs near 2 to 2.25 inches, saturated ground, slow storm motion) are lined up for locally heavy downpours capable of 1 to 2 inches of rain in a short window, especially north and east into early Sunday.
Heat, Humidity & Winds
It’s a muggy one — dew points already sitting in the 60s and climbing into the low 70s by evening as southerly flow deepens. It won’t be scorching (highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s statewide), but the air will feel thick and tropical, especially by afternoon. Winds stay light and variable, mostly east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph, occasionally gusting near the coast where Ocean City sees 9 to 14 mph breezes off the water.
Chesapeake Bay & Marine
Bay waters remain unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through tonight, especially over open water sections from Pooles Island south through the Tidal Potomac. Boaters should keep an eye on building storm cells this evening — visibility can drop fast under heavier cores, and there’s a real chance of gusty, erratic winds under any thunderstorm. No formal marine warnings are up as of this writing, but conditions bear watching through the evening commute-home boating window.
Overnight Lows by Zone
| Zone | Low |
| Western Mountains (Deep Creek/Oakland) | ~61° |
| Cumberland/Hagerstown | ~66-67° |
| Frederick/Carroll | ~68° |
| Baltimore/DC corridor | ~68-72° |
| Southern Maryland | ~69° |
| Eastern Shore | ~72° |
| Ocean City | ~73° |
Looking Ahead
Sunday: The low pressure system continues lifting north through the morning, so scattered showers and a few thunderstorms linger — especially early — before drying out somewhat by afternoon as the front clears. Highs surge into the mid 80s (some spots touching upper 80s), aided by a bit of downslope warming ahead of a stronger cold front. The Eastern Shore and Ocean City actually see their better storm chances Sunday (60-65%) as the system lags behind over the Bay and coastal waters. Monday: The cold front finally clears the area overnight Sunday into Monday, ushering in a much drier, cooler, and notably less humid airmass. Highs settle into the mid-70s to low 80s with breezy northwest winds (gusts 15-20 mph), and clear skies set up a genuinely refreshing Monday night, with widespread 50s and even some upper 40s possible in the usual cold pockets of Garrett County and the higher terrain.
Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
Stay dry out there, Maryland — MDWA will be watching the radar through tonight’s storms and will send updates if a Flood Watch is issued. See you this evening.