Good morning. A parade of overnight and early-morning showers — some locally heavy, with a few rumbles of thunder — is sliding across the state right now and should clear the I-95 corridor and points east shortly after sunrise, per NWS Baltimore/Washington’s 3:36 AM discussion and Wakefield’s 3:58 AM update. A warm front lifting through this morning could spark a few more disorganized showers, then skies brighten into a warm, humid afternoon with highs well into the 80s across most of the state. A Flash Flood Warning is active for Worcester County and a Flood Advisory covers the Lower Shore (Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, Worcester) as heavy rain rates move through. Behind it all, a stronger cold front arrives early Monday, ushering in a much cooler, drier, distinctly autumnal Monday-Tuesday.
Timing: Hour by Hour
- Now–7 AM: Widespread showers, locally moderate to heavy, tracking from the Allegheny Front eastward across Western and Central Maryland; embedded thunder can’t be ruled out, especially toward the Eastern Shore near the warm front. Rain rates up to 1-2 inches/hour possible in bursts.
- 7–9 AM: Showers push into the I-95 corridor and Eastern Shore, then begin exiting to the northeast. This is the window of highest flash-flood concern for the Lower Shore and urban/small-stream areas.
- 9 AM–Noon: Rain tapers from west to east as the low and warm front lift toward Long Island. Skies slowly clear from the west; lingering clouds and a stray shower possible over the Shore into midday.
- Noon–4 PM: More sun than clouds develops statewide. A weak, disorganized redevelopment of showers is possible in spots, mainly south/east, as afternoon heating and lingering warm-frontal moisture interact — but this round should be scattered and short-lived.
- Evening–overnight: Mainly dry with clearing skies areawide, except renewed showers may clip the Allegheny Front/far Western Maryland ahead of Monday’s cold front. Winds increase out of the northwest overnight.
Region by Region
Western Maryland
Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 76°, patchy fog early then mostly cloudy. Winds light out of the west, 3-7 mph. Showers around 25% today, best chances late — thunder possible tonight as the next cold front approaches, with lows dropping to around 56°. Good day for indoor plans at the lake; save the deck evening for Monday.
Allegany County (Cumberland): High around 86° with patchy morning fog burning off to mostly sunny skies — the warmest corner of Western Maryland today. Winds light, northwest 0-6 mph. Only a 14% shower chance. Tonight cools to near 62° with a slight shower chance as the front approaches.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): Showers likely early (56% overnight into daybreak), then a 40% chance lingers into the day before skies turn partly sunny. High near 86°, winds light and westerly. Muggy with dew points climbing into the upper 60s/low 70s.
Frederick County: This is ground zero for the morning’s heaviest rain — 85% overnight chance, still 70% into the day before clearing to partly sunny by afternoon. High around 86°. Watch for standing water on morning commutes before the sun breaks out.
Carroll County: Sharing Frederick’s gridpoint — soaking showers likely early, tapering through midday, high near 86° with partial afternoon sunshine. Breezy northwest winds develop later in the day.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County: A soggy start — 79% overnight, spiking to 92% into the morning commute — with rain showers giving way to partly sunny skies by afternoon. High near 87°, the warmest reading in the metro. Winds light out of the west.
Harford County: Same wet start as Baltimore, clearing from west to east through the morning. Expect standing water on secondary roads early; afternoon turns pleasant with a high near 87°.
Howard County: Mirrors Baltimore’s gridpoint — heavy morning showers (92% chance), then clearing. High around 87°, breezy and humid.
Anne Arundel County: Morning showers likely, some locally heavy near the Bay, then partial clearing by afternoon. High near 87°. Marine interests should watch for gusty, shifting winds as showers move through.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery County: Rain showers likely early (81-92% chance through the morning), then partly sunny. High near 85°. Slick roads for the early risers; better by lunchtime.
Prince George’s County: Same soggy start as Montgomery, clearing by afternoon. High near 85°, humid with dew points in the low 70s.
Southern Maryland
Charles, Calvert & St. Mary’s Counties: Showers and a few thunderstorms likely this morning (63-65% chance), tapering to just a slight chance by afternoon. High near 86°. Southwest winds around 6 mph. Any storm could produce a brief downpour and gusty wind — nothing widespread expected, but don’t be surprised by a rumble.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot & Caroline Counties: Showers and thunderstorms likely overnight into the morning (68% chance), then improving to mostly sunny by afternoon. High near 85°. This area sits closest to the warm front, so a stronger storm or brief spin-up can’t be entirely ruled out through mid-morning — otherwise, a much nicer afternoon than the morning suggests.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester, Wicomico & Somerset Counties: This is the focus of today’s Flood Advisory — showers and thunderstorms (80% overnight chance) bringing heavy rain rates and localized ponding, especially in poor-drainage and urban areas. High near 85°, improving to partly cloudy by evening. Give extra time on flood-prone roads through midday.
Ocean City & the Coast
Worcester County: Under a Flash Flood Warning this morning — showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours possible, 76-78% coverage. High only near 80° with a mostly cloudy sky, warming pattern breaks by late day. Surf 2 to 3 feet, rip current risk low, water temps in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. High tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier 9:35 AM, low tide 3:55 PM. Beachgoers should watch the sky closely this morning — lightning risk before conditions improve into the afternoon.
Active Hazards
Flash Flood Warning (Severe): Worcester County. Heavy rain rates moving through early this morning are capable of quick flooding on roads and in poor-drainage areas; use extreme caution driving in Ocean City and inland Worcester through the morning.
Flood Advisory (Minor): Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, and Worcester Counties. Locally heavy showers may cause minor, short-term flooding of roads and low-lying spots through midday as the system exits.
No other watches, warnings, or advisories are active elsewhere in Maryland at this time, per the Baltimore/Washington Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Severe & Flooding Threat
The morning’s showers are riding on very moist air (precipitable water values over 2 inches per Mount Holly and Wakefield), meaning rain rates can run 1-2 inches per hour in the heaviest cores — enough to cause quick flash flooding, particularly in urban stretches along and near the I-95 corridor and across the Lower Eastern Shore. Thunder is possible but confidence in organized severe storms is low; this is mainly a heavy-rain/flash-flood story, not a wind or hail story. River and stream levels remain well below flood stage heading in, which limits any longer-duration flooding risk. By afternoon, any redevelopment should be more scattered and less prolific.
Heat, Humidity & Winds
Today stays muggy with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s — sticky enough to notice, especially with the morning rain still evaporating off pavement. Afternoon highs run into the low-to-mid 80s across most of the state, touching the upper 80s in the Baltimore-DC corridor and Cumberland. Winds are generally light out of the west today, but increase out of the northwest tonight into Monday, with gusts approaching 20-25 mph Monday afternoon as a strong cold front and building high pressure usher in a much drier, cooler air mass.
Chesapeake Bay & Marine
No Small Craft Advisories are posted for Maryland waters at this hour, though conditions on the Bay may turn a bit choppier Monday behind the frontal passage as northwest winds build — boaters should keep an eye on updated marine forecasts heading into the workweek.
Tonight’s Lows by Zone
| Zone | Low Tonight |
|---|---|
| Western Mountains (Garrett) | Around 56° |
| Cumberland/Hagerstown | Low-to-mid 60s |
| Frederick/Carroll | Upper 60s |
| Baltimore/DC Corridor | Upper 60s to near 70° |
| Southern Maryland | Around 69° |
| Eastern Shore | Upper 60s to near 70° |
| Ocean City | Around 70° |
Looking Ahead
Monday: A crisp, refreshing change — mostly sunny statewide with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s (mid-to-upper 60s in the higher mountains), breezy northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph, and dew points crashing into the 40s-50s. Great drying-out day after this weekend’s rain.
Tuesday: Sunny and cool with lighter winds as high pressure settles in; highs in the upper 70s to near 80° areawide, mountain lows dipping into the 40s Monday night. A strong ridge then builds midweek, bringing very warm, dry conditions (well shy of record highs) through the end of the week, with a cold front and renewed shower chances possible next weekend.
Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your county-by-county forecast, every morning. Stay dry out there.