Good morning. Summer isn’t quite ready to let go — today brings the warmest, muggiest air Maryland has felt in a couple weeks, courtesy of a Canadian high that’s slid out to sea and opened the door for southerly return flow. NWS Baltimore/Washington (issued 3:48 AM) and Mount Holly (3:58 AM) both flag a cold front dropping out of the Ohio Valley that’ll trigger scattered afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly along and east of the mountains before pushing toward I-95 in the 4-9 PM window. Wakefield’s office, covering our southern tip, keeps most of that action confined to our northwest fringe. No severe weather is expected — shear is weak — but a few storms could pack a gusty downdraft. Behind the front, Friday and Saturday turn noticeably more comfortable.
⏱ Timing At A Glance
- Early morning: Mild and muggy, patchy fog possible in spots, isolated showers lingering over the far western mountains.
- Late morning–early afternoon: Warm sun breaks out for most of the state; humidity builds noticeably.
- Midday–2 PM: Showers and a storm or two begin firing over the higher terrain of Garrett and Allegany, then spreading into Washington, Frederick, and Carroll.
- 4–9 PM: Scattered showers/storms push toward the I-95 corridor — Baltimore, DC suburbs, and points east — before losing steam after dark.
- Late night: The cold front itself crosses the state overnight into early Friday, with lingering showers possible, especially north and west.
🗺 Region By Region
Western Maryland
Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 79°, low tonight near 64°. Showers and thunderstorms likely today (74% chance), continuing into tonight as scattered activity before tapering to just a chance of rain showers. Winds light out of the west, 3-8 mph. Deep Creek boaters should keep an eye on the radar this afternoon — this is the region most likely to see storms first.
Allegany County (Cumberland): Warmer, topping out around 89° with isolated showers/storms this afternoon turning more scattered by evening (38% chance). Overnight low near 69°, with lingering shower chances and patchy fog developing toward daybreak Friday.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): High near 88° under a chance of showers and thunderstorms (65%), with the best chance arriving through the afternoon and continuing into tonight (71%) as the front nears. Overnight low around 70°.
Frederick County: Same story — high near 88°, scattered showers turning to scattered showers and storms this afternoon (63% today, 55% tonight). Muggy and unsettled by evening; low near 70°.
Carroll County: Sharing Frederick’s gridpoint numbers — high near 88°, low near 70° tonight, with the same scattered storm risk arriving mid-to-late afternoon.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County: Warmest reading on the board — high near 89°, humid, with scattered showers this afternoon (26%) increasing to isolated storms by evening. Overnight low around 72° with a better shower/storm chance after dark (45%) as the front approaches.
Harford County: Tracking with the Baltimore gridpoint — low-to-mid 80s to near 89° for a high, muggy, with the same afternoon-into-evening storm risk.
Howard County: Same air mass, same numbers — high near 89°, evening storm chance building overnight.
Anne Arundel County: High near 89° with scattered showers possible this afternoon; watch the bay breeze for a slight temper on coastal spots. Storm chances increase toward evening.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery County: High near 88°, scattered showers this afternoon (36%) with isolated storms possible; low near 71° tonight as showers continue (33%).
Prince George’s County: Sharing the Silver Spring gridpoint — same high near 88°, same muggy, unsettled afternoon-into-evening pattern.
Southern Maryland
Calvert County (Prince Frederick): A bit drier down here — high near 87°, mostly sunny with only an 11% shower chance. Overnight low near 71° with a slight chance of a stray shower or storm (19%).
Charles County: Tracking close to the Calvert numbers — warm, mostly sunny, low storm risk today.
St. Mary’s County: Same regional pattern — high near 87°, mostly sunny, minimal rain threat, low near 71° overnight.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil County: Expect conditions similar to the Easton gridpoint — high near 85°, a slight chance of an early shower (20%) giving way to sunshine, low near 71° tonight with a small chance of a late shower or storm.
Kent County: Same setup — mid-80s high, mostly sunny afternoon, quiet night.
Queen Anne’s County: High near 85°, slight shower chance fading to sun, humid overnight near 71°.
Talbot County: Matching Easton directly — high 85°, mostly sunny by afternoon, low 71° with a slight late-night storm chance.
Caroline County: Same air mass — warm, mostly sunny, low shower risk, mild overnight low near 71°.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester County: High near 84°, mostly sunny, only an 8% shower chance — one of the calmer spots on the map today. Low near 71° tonight.
Wicomico County (Salisbury): Same as Dorchester’s gridpoint — mostly sunny, high near 84°, quiet night with a low near 71°.
Somerset County: Tracking the Salisbury numbers closely — warm and mostly dry, high near 84°.
Ocean City & The Coast
Worcester County / Ocean City: Noticeably cooler at the beach thanks to onshore flow — high only around 79°, mostly sunny, with south winds 6-13 mph. Overnight low near 72°, partly cloudy. Surf: 2 feet, rip current risk low. Water temp mid-70s — still swimmable. UV index high, so reapply sunscreen if you’re out on the sand most of the day. Tides at the Ocean City Fishing Pier: low 6:09 AM, high 12:35 PM.
📊 Quick-Look Highs/Lows
| Region | High Today | Low Tonight |
| Garrett (Deep Creek) | 79° | 64° |
| Allegany (Cumberland) | 89° | 69° |
| Washington (Hagerstown) | 88° | 70° |
| Frederick/Carroll | 88° | 70° |
| Baltimore Metro | 89° | 72° |
| DC Suburbs | 88° | 71° |
| Southern MD | 87° | 71° |
| Upper Shore | 85° | 71° |
| Lower Shore | 84° | 71° |
| Ocean City | 79° | 72° |
⚠️ Active Hazards
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Maryland at this hour. The Baltimore/Washington Hazardous Weather Outlook, issued 4:02 AM, explicitly notes no hazardous weather is expected today.
⛈ Severe & Flooding Threat
Confidence in organized severe weather is low today. Surface-based instability builds nicely this afternoon (roughly 1,500-2,000 J/kg of CAPE per NWS Baltimore/Washington), but deep-layer shear is meager — only 15-20 knots — and mid-level lapse rates are weak, which should cap storm height and organization. The main risk in any stronger cell is a brief, gusty downdraft (500-700 J/kg of downdraft CAPE noted aloft), so a stray wind gust with a passing storm isn’t out of the question, especially over the higher terrain first. Flooding concern is low given the fast-moving, scattered nature of the activity — nothing is expected to train or stall.
🌡 Heat, Humidity & Wind
Dew points climb into the mid-to-upper 60s across the state today — genuinely sticky by mid-September standards, a solid 8-12 degrees more humid than 24 hours ago. Expect that soupy, T-shirt-clinging feel by afternoon even without an official heat advisory. Winds stay generally light out of the south or southwest, 3-10 mph in most spots, with some gustiness (up to 15-20 mph) possible behind any thunderstorm outflow and again tomorrow as the front clears through.
⛵ Chesapeake Bay & Marine
No marine hazards are posted for the Bay or tidal Potomac this morning. Winds on the water should stay light out of the south, with the front’s passage overnight bringing a shift to the north by Friday — boaters transiting late tonight into early Friday should be ready for a wind shift and a few passing showers.
🌙 Overnight Lows By Zone
- Western mountains: mid 60s, around 64°
- Cumberland/Hagerstown: upper 60s to near 70°
- Frederick/Carroll: near 70°
- Baltimore/DC corridor: low-to-mid 70s, around 71-72°
- Southern Maryland: around 71°
- Eastern Shore: around 71°
- Ocean City: around 72°, partly cloudy
📅 Looking Ahead
Friday: The cold front finally clears the region, ushering in a noticeably drier and less humid day. Highs settle into the upper 70s to mid 80s (mid/low 70s in the mountains), with north winds gusting 15-20 mph behind the front. A stray lingering shower is possible early over the far west, but most of the state dries out nicely with sunshine returning by afternoon.
Saturday: High pressure builds in behind the front, delivering a comfortable start to the weekend — highs in the 70s to low 80s, reduced humidity, and mostly cloudy-to-partly-sunny skies. A good outdoor day statewide.
Sunday into next week: Confidence drops considerably. A stalled, meandering boundary combined with multiple upper-level disturbances raises the chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms, with some signal for potentially heavy rain at times. We’ll sharpen the details as the pattern comes into better focus over the next couple of days.
Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your county-by-county guide to Maryland’s sky, morning to night. Stay dry out there, and keep one eye on the radar this afternoon.