Good morning. A warm front is easing north through Maryland this morning behind a batch of showers and a stray rumble sliding in from West Virginia, and a livelier round of scattered showers — maybe a thunderstorm or two — is possible again this afternoon as the front’s cold companion approaches from the west. NWS Baltimore/Washington (4:03 AM) and NWS Mount Holly (3:15 AM) both flag it as a wetter, warmer day before a genuine pattern change: cool, damp, cloudy conditions settle in behind tonight’s cold front and look to stick around into the workweek.
Timing at a Glance
- Early morning (now–9 AM): Leftover showers, and maybe an embedded rumble, tracking in from the West Virginia line, weakening as they cross the mountains. Patchy fog possible in Garrett County hollows.
- Midday–early afternoon: Warm front lifts through, dewpoints climb into the low 70s, and a broken cloud deck allows some peeks of sun. Best chance for a redeveloping shower or isolated thunderstorm is generally south of I-70/near I-95 and southward — SPC has even painted a Marginal severe risk over parts of the region, though the environment isn’t especially primed for anything organized.
- Afternoon into evening: Scattered showers/storms continue statewide, focused west and south, ahead of tonight’s cold front.
- Tonight: Cold front sweeps through, showers and a few storms accompany the passage, winds swing around to the north, and low clouds build back in behind it.
Region by Region
Western Maryland
Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 75°, patchy morning fog giving way to scattered showers and thunderstorms most of the day — precip chances run as high as 90%. Winds light out of the west near 8 mph. This is the wettest corner of the state today; keep the rain gear handy for any lake outings. Lows tonight near 57°.
Allegany County (Cumberland): High around 81° with showers and thunderstorms likely (78% coverage), winds light out of the southwest. Overnight low near 59°.
Northern & Central Maryland
Washington County (Hagerstown): High near 80°, showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon (86% chance), winds southwest 6-12 mph gusting a touch higher ahead of the front. Overnight low near 59° under a chance of lingering showers.
Frederick & Carroll Counties: High around 81°, showers and thunderstorms likely (80%), southwest winds 5-10 mph. Showers continue into the evening as the front approaches, with lows dropping to near 61°.
Baltimore Metro
Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: High near 83° — low-to-mid 80s — with a good chance of showers and a possible thunderstorm this afternoon (near 70% coverage), south winds 7-10 mph. Showers likely again overnight as the cold front works through, low around 63°. Southeast Harford sits under a Minor Coastal Flood Advisory (see Hazards below) as tidal waters run a bit high with the onshore flow.
DC Suburbs
Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties: High near 82°, southwest winds 7-10 mph, with scattered showers and a chance of a thunderstorm (63% coverage) mainly afternoon into evening. Muggy with dewpoints climbing into the low 70s. Overnight low near 63° with lingering shower chances as the front slides through.
Southern Maryland
Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: Warmest spot on the map today — high near 84°. Scattered showers this afternoon with thunderstorm chances increasing into the evening as the front approaches (up toward 59% overnight). South winds around 6-12 mph. Overnight low near 67°, the mildest in the state.
Upper Eastern Shore
Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: High near 83°, mostly cloudy with a light rain/isolated storm chance this afternoon (around 26%), south winds 5-10 mph. Rain chances increase tonight (up to 70%) as showers and a few storms move through overnight into early Monday. Low near 66°.
Lower Eastern Shore
Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: A relative bright spot — high near 84°, partly sunny with just an 8% precip chance today, light south winds. Showers and a thunderstorm chance return tonight (44%) as the front finally reaches the Shore. Low near 68°.
Ocean City & the Coast
Worcester County / Ocean City: Mostly sunny and pleasant, high near 77°, south winds 10-15 mph. Surf running 2-3 feet with a Moderate Rip Current Risk in effect through this evening — swim near a lifeguard and respect the flags. UV Index is High. Water temps mid-to-upper 70s. Low tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier is 8:54 AM, high tide 3:36 PM. Skies stay mostly quiet tonight with just a slight chance of a late shower or storm (26%), low near 69°.
Active Hazards
Coastal Flood Advisory (Minor): In effect for Southeast Harford County. Onshore flow and elevated tidal influence may bring minor inundation to low-lying, flood-prone shoreline areas along tidal waters. Plan around high tide if you’re near the water’s edge.
Small Craft Advisory: Extended through 1 PM for Chesapeake Bay waters and the tidal Potomac (per LWX). Boaters on the Bay, Patapsco/Baltimore Harbor, Chester/Eastern Bay, Choptank, Patuxent, and Tangier Sound should expect choppy conditions and plan accordingly.
Marginal Risk of Severe Weather (SPC): Mainly across southern Maryland/the I-95 corridor this afternoon as the warm front lifts through and any redeveloping storms tap modest instability. Confidence is low, and the setup does not favor widespread or organized severe weather — main concerns if anything develops would be gusty winds and heavy downpours.
No watches or warnings for severe thunderstorms or flash flooding have been issued at this writing.
Severe & Flooding Threat
This morning’s showers moving in from West Virginia and Ohio are expected to weaken as they cross the mountains into a less unstable atmosphere, though a few embedded rumbles can’t be ruled out through mid-morning, mainly Garrett and Allegany Counties. The bigger question is whether new thunderstorms fire this afternoon in the wake of that activity — confidence is low, but if storms do develop, the favored zone is roughly south and east of the I-70 corridor into Southern Maryland, aided by afternoon heating breaking through the clouds and modest instability (500-1000 J/kg CAPE). Severe potential is limited given the background environment, but a gusty downpour or brief strong wind gust is possible in any storm that manages to mature. No excessive rainfall or flash flood concerns are highlighted for today; that risk shifts into Tuesday for parts of the region as a slow-moving system lingers.
Heat, Humidity & Winds
Humidity builds noticeably today as the warm front lifts through — dewpoints climb into the lower 70s statewide, giving the air a sticky, late-summer feel one more time before the pattern flips. No excessive heat is expected; afternoon highs top out in the low-to-mid 80s across most of central and southern Maryland, upper 70s in the mountains and at the beach. Winds are generally light out of the south to southwest today (5-15 mph), shifting to the north behind tonight’s cold front. That frontal wind shift ushers in the much cooler, damper airmass that will dominate the week ahead.
Chesapeake Bay & Marine
Small Craft Advisory conditions persist on the Bay and tidal Potomac through 1 PM today with a south-to-southwest wind flow ahead of the front. Expect building chop and reduced visibility in any showers. Boaters should plan trips for early morning or wait until winds relax behind the front tonight.
Tonight’s Lows by Zone
| Zone | Low |
| Western Mountains (Garrett) | Around 57° |
| Cumberland/Hagerstown | Upper 50s (59°) |
| Frederick/Carroll | Low 60s (61°) |
| Baltimore/DC Corridor | Low-to-mid 60s (62-63°) |
| Southern Maryland | Mid-to-upper 60s (67°) |
| Eastern Shore (Upper/Lower) | Mid-to-upper 60s (66-68°) |
| Ocean City | Upper 60s (69°) |
Looking Ahead
Monday brings a pattern shift as cooler, drier air tries to filter in behind the front, though rain showers linger — especially in the mountains where a 70-80% chance persists — while central and eastern Maryland see a break with just a slight chance of an afternoon shower. Highs settle into the mid-60s west to upper 70s east. Northeast winds strengthen through the day as a coastal low begins organizing offshore. Tuesday looks unsettled and breezy for everyone, with rain showers likely area-wide (mostly 60-95% chances) as this coastal system deepens — a classic cold air damming setup with high pressure building into New England keeps Maryland locked into a cool, cloudy, showery stretch into midweek, with coastal flooding becoming an increasing concern along the Bay and shore later in the week.
Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MDWA — your county-by-county guide to Maryland’s weather, every morning and night. Stay dry out there.