Good morning, Maryland.

Tuesday is shaping up to be an active and potentially high-impact weather day across the state. A warm front lifting north will bring back very humid air, while a strong upper-level disturbance approaches from the west. This combination will create a favorable environment for organized thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Maryland within an Enhanced Risk — Level 3 of 5 — for severe thunderstorms, with the remainder of the state generally within a Slight Risk — Level 2 of 5. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, but large hail, isolated tornadoes, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and localized flash flooding are also possible. 

Storm timing remains somewhat uncertain because early clouds and morning showers may affect how quickly the atmosphere destabilizes. However, the most concerning period for much of Maryland remains mid-afternoon through the evening, with additional storms and heavy rain potentially continuing overnight.

Straight to the Point

🌧️ Morning commute: Increasing clouds with scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. The morning will not be a statewide washout.

🥵 Daytime: Warm, breezy, and increasingly humid, with highs from the upper 70s in Garrett County to the lower 90s around the Washington suburbs and Southern Maryland.

⛈️ Severe-weather window: Storms may begin around midday in Western Maryland before becoming more widespread across Central Maryland, the Baltimore-Washington corridor, Southern Maryland, and the Eastern Shore during the afternoon and evening.

💨 Main threat: Damaging winds capable of bringing down trees and power lines.

🌧️ Additional threats: Torrential rainfall, localized flash flooding, large hail, frequent lightning, and isolated tornadoes.

🌙 Tonight: Multiple rounds of storms may continue, especially across Central Maryland, Southern Maryland, and the Eastern Shore.

Tuesday Morning Commute Forecast

The morning commute will begin warm and increasingly muggy across Maryland.

Clouds will continue to increase as the warm front moves northward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop before or during the commute, particularly across Central Maryland, the Baltimore metropolitan area, the Washington suburbs, Southern Maryland, and communities near the Chesapeake Bay.

Not everyone will receive rain during the morning. Some areas may experience only cloudy skies and brief showers, while other communities could see a locally heavy downpour or thunderstorm.

Low clouds may also produce temporarily reduced visibility. Roads could become slick where heavier showers occur, but widespread flooding is not anticipated during the morning commute. 

Approximate morning temperatures

• Garrett County: Middle 60s
• Allegany and Washington counties: Upper 60s
• Frederick, Carroll, northern Baltimore, Harford and Cecil counties: Upper 60s to lower 70s
• Baltimore City and surrounding suburbs: Lower to middle 70s
• Montgomery, Howard and Prince George’s counties: Lower to middle 70s
• Anne Arundel County and communities near the Bay: Middle 70s
• Southern Maryland: Lower to middle 70s
• Eastern Shore: Lower to middle 70s
• Ocean City and Assateague: Middle 70s

A few morning showers could temporarily stabilize the atmosphere, but any breaks in the clouds later in the morning would allow instability to build rapidly ahead of the afternoon storms. 

Daytime Forecast

South to southwest winds will draw warm and moisture-rich air across Maryland today. Dew points rising into the lower 70s will make conditions feel noticeably more humid than Monday.

Thunderstorm coverage should increase from west to east during the afternoon. The storms may organize into clusters, broken lines, or embedded supercells. The National Weather Service expects storms to move fairly quickly, but repeated rounds or storms crossing the same locations could still produce localized flash flooding. 

Western Maryland

Garrett County

Oakland, Deep Creek Lake, Grantsville and surrounding mountain communities can expect a cloudy and unsettled day.

Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible during the morning before storms become more numerous around midday and during the afternoon. Highs should reach the upper 70s, with southwest winds occasionally gusting above 20 mph.

Western Maryland may be among the first parts of the state affected by stronger storms. Damaging winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning will be the primary concerns. 

Allegany County

Cumberland, Frostburg, La Vale and surrounding communities should reach the lower to middle 80s.

Thunderstorms may begin developing by late morning or early afternoon. Storms could intensify quickly as they move east or southeast through the county.

Washington County

Hagerstown, Hancock, Boonsboro, Williamsport and Smithsburg should reach the middle to upper 80s.

The severe-weather threat will increase from early afternoon into the evening. Strong wind gusts and brief torrential rainfall will be possible.

North-Central Maryland

Frederick County

Frederick, Urbana, Brunswick, Thurmont and surrounding communities can expect highs in the middle to upper 80s.

A morning shower is possible, but the greater concern arrives during the afternoon. Thunderstorms may develop or move into the county between approximately mid-afternoon and early evening.

Carroll County

Westminster, Eldersburg, Hampstead, Manchester and Mount Airy should reach the middle to upper 80s.

The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable during the afternoon. Any organized storm could produce damaging winds, hail and very heavy rainfall.

Harford County

Bel Air, Abingdon, Aberdeen, Edgewood, Havre de Grace and northern Harford County should reach the middle to upper 80s.

Scattered morning showers are possible before stronger storms become increasingly likely later in the day. The afternoon and evening commute could be affected by heavy rain, sudden wind gusts and frequent lightning.

Cecil County

Elkton, North East, Perryville and Rising Sun can expect highs in the middle to upper 80s.

Cecil County is within the broader corridor where organized severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible. Multiple rounds may occur from the afternoon through the evening. 

Baltimore Region

Baltimore City and Baltimore County

Baltimore City, Towson, Catonsville, Owings Mills, Pikesville, Perry Hall, Essex, Dundalk and surrounding communities should reach the upper 80s to around 90°.

A few showers or thunderstorms may occur during the morning, but the strongest storms are more likely from the middle afternoon into the evening. The National Weather Service indicates that one round may develop around the 3–5 PM period, followed by another round later in the evening.

Damaging winds will be the greatest concern. Trees and power lines could be brought down in the strongest storms, especially where the ground is already wet. 

Howard County

Columbia, Ellicott City, Elkridge, Savage and Laurel should reach the upper 80s to near 90°.

Thunderstorms become increasingly likely during the afternoon and evening. Heavy rain may quickly reduce visibility along Interstate 95, Route 29, Route 32 and surrounding roads.

Anne Arundel County

Annapolis, Glen Burnie, Pasadena, Severna Park, Crofton and communities along the Chesapeake Bay should reach the upper 80s to near 90°.

South winds will increase during the afternoon. Thunderstorms could bring sudden damaging gusts both inland and along the Bay. Water levels may also approach action stage around Annapolis due to persistent southerly flow. 

Central Maryland and the Washington Suburbs

Montgomery County

Rockville, Gaithersburg, Germantown, Bethesda, Silver Spring and surrounding communities should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The afternoon and evening carry the greatest risk for severe thunderstorms. Storms may form in clusters rather than one solid line, meaning conditions could change quickly from one community to another.

Prince George’s County

Bowie, College Park, Greenbelt, Hyattsville, Laurel and Upper Marlboro can expect highs near 90–92°.

Strong instability combined with increasing winds aloft will support a risk of damaging thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening.

Howard County

Howard County remains included in the central Maryland severe-weather corridor, with the greatest concern during the afternoon commute and early evening.

Brief flash flooding may develop where storms repeatedly cross urbanized areas.

Southern Maryland

Charles County

Waldorf, La Plata, Indian Head and surrounding communities should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Storms may arrive somewhat later than in Western and north-central Maryland, but the threat could continue well into the evening.

Calvert County

Prince Frederick, Dunkirk, Chesapeake Beach, North Beach and Lusby should reach the upper 80s to near 90°.

Damaging winds, torrential rain and dangerous lightning will be possible as storms approach the Chesapeake Bay.

St. Mary’s County

Leonardtown, California, Lexington Park and surrounding communities can expect highs around 90°.

Thunderstorms may be most numerous during the late afternoon, evening and early overnight hours. Some storm risk could linger into Wednesday because the cold front will be slower to clear Southern Maryland. 

Upper Eastern Shore

Kent County

Chestertown and surrounding communities should reach the middle to upper 80s.

Showers may occur during the morning, but severe storms will become a greater concern during the afternoon and evening.

Queen Anne’s County

Centreville, Stevensville, Grasonville and Kent Island should reach the upper 80s.

Storms crossing the Chesapeake Bay may intensify or produce sudden wind gusts as they reach the Eastern Shore.

Caroline County

Denton, Federalsburg and Greensboro should reach the upper 80s to near 90°.

Heavy rain and damaging winds are possible from afternoon through evening.

Talbot County

Easton, St. Michaels and Trappe can expect highs in the upper 80s.

The most active period may come during the late afternoon and evening, with thunderstorms continuing into the overnight hours.

The National Weather Service Mount Holly expects several rounds of storms, with damaging winds as the primary severe hazard and rainfall rates capable of producing localized flash flooding. 

Mid and Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester County

Cambridge and surrounding communities should reach the upper 80s.

The severe-weather threat increases during the afternoon and evening. Torrential rain may lead to ponding or localized flooding in poor-drainage areas.

Wicomico County

Salisbury, Fruitland, Delmar and surrounding communities can expect highs in the upper 80s.

Showers and storms are possible throughout the day, with a greater risk of strong or severe storms later in the afternoon and evening.

Somerset County

Princess Anne, Crisfield and surrounding communities should reach the middle to upper 80s.

Somerset County is expected to remain within the broader severe-weather risk, although the strongest activity may arrive later than areas farther north and west.

Worcester County

Berlin, Snow Hill and Pocomoke City should reach the middle to upper 80s.

Thunderstorms will become increasingly likely during the afternoon and evening. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds and heavy rain.

Ocean City and Assateague

Ocean City and Assateague should reach the middle 80s under mostly cloudy skies.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely, with the greatest coverage from the afternoon into tonight. South winds may gust over 20 mph on land and water.

A moderate rip-current risk is expected at the beaches. Swim only near a lifeguard and follow all local beach restrictions. 

Severe Thunderstorm Threat

Tuesday’s setup will support organized thunderstorms capable of producing multiple hazards.

Damaging Winds

Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern statewide. Several clusters of storms could produce swaths of wind damage, including fallen trees, blocked roads, downed power lines and scattered power outages.

The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington office describes the potential for a significant severe-weather episode, with scattered significant wind-damage reports possible. 

Large Hail

Large hail is possible, especially in any storms that remain isolated or develop rotating supercell structures before merging into larger clusters.

Tornadoes

The tornado risk is lower than the damaging-wind threat, but one or two tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The relative risk may be somewhat greater closer to the warm front across northern Maryland and the northeastern portion of the state. 

Flash Flooding

Atmospheric moisture will be unusually high, allowing storms to produce torrential downpours.

Many storms will move quickly, but storm mergers, repeated rounds or training thunderstorms could produce localized flash flooding. Urban areas, poor-drainage locations and roads near small streams will be most vulnerable. 

Tuesday Evening Forecast

The evening may be one of the most active portions of the day.

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of Maryland during the evening commute. Additional clusters may develop or move into the state behind the initial afternoon round.

Approximate progression:

• Western Maryland: Greatest concern from midday through early evening
• North-central Maryland: Mid-afternoon through evening
• Baltimore and Central Maryland: Mid-afternoon through late evening
• Southern Maryland: Late afternoon through overnight
• Eastern Shore: Late afternoon through the night
• Ocean City and the beaches: Evening through early Wednesday

These windows are approximate and could change depending on how the morning storms evolve.

Any evening storm could produce damaging winds, torrential rain, frequent lightning and sharply reduced visibility. Do not attempt to drive through flooded roads, and never shelter beneath trees during severe thunderstorms. 

Chesapeake Bay and Marine Forecast

Conditions will become hazardous on Maryland’s waters today.

South to southwest winds will increase during the afternoon, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected across much of the Chesapeake Bay, tidal Potomac and Atlantic coastal waters.

Severe thunderstorms may produce sudden gusts exceeding gale force, frequent lightning, extremely poor visibility and rapidly building waves. Special Marine Warnings will likely be needed where the strongest storms cross the water.

Boaters should strongly consider remaining in port and should have a reliable way to receive warnings. 

Looking Ahead to Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms may continue into Wednesday, particularly across Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore.

An additional strong storm cannot be ruled out before the cold front clears the region. Cooler, less humid and mainly dry weather is expected to arrive Thursday and continue through the end of the workweek. 

Bottom Line

Tuesday, July 21, 2026 is a day to remain weather-aware across every part of Maryland.

Scattered morning showers may be followed by multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon, evening and overnight. Damaging winds are the main threat, but large hail, isolated tornadoes, flash flooding and frequent lightning are also possible.

Charge phones and weather radios, secure loose outdoor objects, avoid unnecessary time on the water, and make sure emergency alerts are enabled. Know where you will shelter before warnings are issued.

Stay with MD Weather Alerts throughout the day for updated timing, radar coverage, watches and warnings.