Maryland will experience a hotter and increasingly humid Thursday, with a mainly dry morning followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
Today will not be a washout. Many communities may remain dry for most or all of the day. However, the atmosphere contains abundant moisture, and any thunderstorm that develops may produce torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds.
The overall severe-weather threat remains limited, but isolated damaging gusts and localized flash flooding are possible—especially where storms move repeatedly across the same community. NWS Baltimore/Washington expects this warm, humid and intermittently stormy pattern to continue through the weekend.
Morning Commute
Most of Maryland will have a dry Thursday morning commute.
Patchy fog may reduce visibility in Western Maryland valleys and in locations that received significant rainfall Wednesday. Garrett, Allegany, Washington and western Frederick counties have the greatest chance of localized fog.
Elsewhere, expect partly sunny skies with temperatures climbing rapidly through the 70s.
No widespread travel disruption is expected during the morning, but isolated low visibility may occur near rivers, valleys and low-lying rural roads.
Midday Forecast
By midday, temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s across central and eastern Maryland.
Western Maryland will remain slightly cooler, while Ocean City and immediate coastal communities will benefit from the Atlantic breeze.
Most locations remain dry through lunchtime. Clouds will gradually increase over the mountains and along leftover surface boundaries.
Afternoon Forecast
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to begin developing after approximately 1–2 PM, initially across Western Maryland and the higher terrain.
Additional storms may form across central Maryland, the Baltimore–Washington corridor and portions of the Eastern Shore later in the afternoon.
Storm coverage will be uneven. Some towns may receive a heavy downpour while nearby communities remain dry.
Evening Forecast
The greatest storm coverage is expected between approximately 4 PM and 9 PM.
Storms will gradually decrease after sunset, although an isolated shower may linger into late evening.
Thursday-night lows will range from the middle 60s in the western mountains to the middle and upper 70s around Baltimore, Washington, Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore.
County-by-County Forecast
Garrett County
Patchy valley fog early. Partly sunny, warm and humid during the day, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Highs: 80–84°.
Primary concern: Heavy rainfall in slow-moving mountain storms.
Allegany County
Morning sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are possible.
Highs: 84–87°.
Primary concern: Localized ponding and lightning.
Washington County
Mostly sunny and humid during the morning. Scattered thunderstorms may develop after 2 PM.
Highs: 86–89°.
Frederick County
A dry morning followed by scattered afternoon or evening thunderstorms.
Highs: 87–90°.
Any storm may produce torrential rain.
Carroll County
Partly sunny, hot and humid. An isolated or scattered late-day storm is possible.
Highs: 87–90°.
Baltimore County
Hot and humid with increasing afternoon clouds. Scattered storms may develop during the late afternoon or evening.
Highs: 88–91°.
Baltimore City
Hot and humid with a mixture of sunshine and clouds. A late-day storm may cause brief urban flooding.
Highs: 89–92°.
Harford County
Partly sunny with an afternoon or evening storm possible.
Highs: 87–90°.
Areas affected by Wednesday’s heavy rain may be more vulnerable to ponding.
Cecil County
Hot and humid with an isolated afternoon thunderstorm.
Highs: 88–91°.
Montgomery County
Mostly sunny and humid during the morning. Scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon.
Highs: 88–91°.
Howard County
Hot and humid with a late-afternoon or evening storm possible.
Highs: 88–91°.
Prince George’s County
Mostly sunny and hot. An isolated or scattered storm may develop late today.
Highs: 89–92°.
Anne Arundel County
Partly sunny, hot and humid. A late-day storm is possible near the Chesapeake Bay.
Highs: 87–90°.
Charles County
Warm and humid with an isolated afternoon or evening storm.
Highs: 88–91°.
Calvert County
Partly sunny and humid with a late-day storm possible.
Highs: 86–89°.
St. Mary’s County
Warm and humid with an isolated afternoon thunderstorm.
Highs: 86–89°.
Kent County
Mostly sunny and hot with a limited late-day storm chance.
Highs: 88–91°.
Queen Anne’s County
Hot and humid with an isolated afternoon or evening storm possible.
Highs: 88–91°.
Talbot County
Partly sunny and humid. A late-day thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
Highs: 87–90°.
Caroline County
Hot and humid with an isolated afternoon storm.
Highs: 89–92°.
Dorchester County
Partly sunny and humid with a limited storm chance.
Highs: 87–90°.
Wicomico County
Hot and humid with an isolated afternoon storm possible.
Highs: 89–92°.
Somerset County
Partly sunny with a late-day thunderstorm possible.
Highs: 87–90°.
Worcester County
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A stray inland thunderstorm is possible during the afternoon.
Inland highs: 88–91°.
Ocean City: 83–86°.
Temperature Forecast
- Western Maryland mountains: 80–84°
- Cumberland and Hagerstown: 84–89°
- Frederick and Carroll counties: 87–90°
- Baltimore–Washington corridor: 88–92°
- Southern Maryland: 86–91°
- Upper Eastern Shore: 87–92°
- Lower Eastern Shore: 87–92°
- Ocean City and immediate beaches: 83–86°
Precipitation and Storm Timing
Before noon: Mainly dry statewide, with patchy fog west.
Noon–3 PM: Isolated storms begin developing over Western Maryland and the mountains.
3–6 PM: Scattered storms become possible across central and north-central Maryland.
6–9 PM: Storms may reach the Baltimore–Washington corridor, Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore.
After 9 PM: Storms gradually weaken and become more isolated.
Flooding Risk
The statewide flooding risk is localized rather than widespread.
Atmospheric moisture remains well above normal, and storms may move slowly. A community receiving repeated downpours could experience:
- Urban street flooding
- Ponding in parking lots and underpasses
- Overflowing storm drains
- Rapid rises along small streams
- Flooded rural low-water crossings
The greatest vulnerability will be in areas that received heavy rainfall Wednesday.
Severe-Weather Potential
Widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Weak atmospheric wind shear should limit storm organization, but hotter temperatures may allow an isolated storm to produce a damaging downburst.
The most likely storm hazards are:
- Torrential rainfall
- Frequent lightning
- Wind gusts of 35–50 mph
- Localized flash flooding
- Brief power outages
Wind
Outside thunderstorms, winds will generally blow from the south to southwest at 5–10 mph.
Winds may gust significantly higher near thunderstorms.
Fog
Patchy morning fog is possible across:
- Garrett and Allegany counties
- Washington County valleys
- Western Frederick County
- Locations receiving significant Wednesday rainfall
Fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise.
Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac
South to southwest winds will generally remain around 5–12 knots.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are not expected to be widespread during the day, but any thunderstorm may produce sudden wind gusts above 35 knots, frequent lightning and sharply reduced visibility.
Boaters should monitor radar and be prepared to return to shelter quickly.
Coastal and Beach Forecast
Ocean City and Assateague will be partly sunny, warm and humid.
An isolated afternoon thunderstorm is possible inland, but much of the immediate beach may remain dry.
Beach visitors should check Thursday morning’s official rip-current forecast before entering the ocean. Wednesday’s Moderate Rip Current Risk expires Wednesday evening.
Coastal Flooding
Persistent southerly flow will begin raising Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac water levels.
Minor flooding may become possible around sensitive shorelines at high tide, including Annapolis and other historically vulnerable locations. Confidence remains too limited for precise timing in this package.
Heat and Humidity
Thursday will feel significantly warmer than Wednesday.
Heat-index values will generally range from the lower to middle 90s. A few urban and inland communities could briefly approach the upper 90s.
A widespread Maryland Heat Advisory is not currently indicated, but heat stress remains possible during prolonged outdoor activity.
Drink water, take breaks in the shade and check on anyone without reliable air conditioning.
Air Quality
No major statewide air-quality alert is identified in the current official weather discussions.
Moderate ozone or particle-pollution levels remain possible around the Baltimore–Washington corridor, particularly before afternoon storms develop.
Winter Weather
There are no winter-weather concerns anywhere in Maryland.
Tropical Weather
No direct tropical-cyclone impact is expected.
The air mass is tropical in character, meaning storms may produce high rainfall rates, but the current rainfall pattern is not associated with a direct tropical-system landfall.
Active Watches, Warnings and Advisories
At the Wednesday afternoon check:
- The Flood Watch for southern Baltimore and southeastern Harford counties was scheduled to expire at 4 PM Wednesday.
- A Small Craft Advisory remained in effect through 8 PM Wednesday for portions of the lower Chesapeake Bay.
- A Moderate Rip Current Risk remained in effect through 8 PM Wednesday for Maryland’s beaches.
- The latest LWX hazardous-weather outlook listed no organized hazard for Wednesday night, while noting scattered storms Thursday through Saturday may produce isolated damaging winds and flash flooding.
These Wednesday advisories do not automatically carry into Thursday; check the latest NWS alert feed Thursday morning for extensions or newly issued products.
Looking Ahead
Friday will remain hot and humid, with additional scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
The potential for isolated damaging winds may increase slightly Friday as the atmospheric wind field strengthens. Localized flash flooding will remain possible beneath slow-moving or repeating storms.
Daily thunderstorm chances continue Saturday, followed by seasonably hot and humid weather through early next week.