Warm, Muggy Thursday Ahead of a Soggy Friday — 70s Statewide, Rain Returns Tonight

Good morning. NWS Baltimore/Washington (2:51 AM update) and NWS Mount Holly (3:42 AM) are both watching the same slow-moving cold front — it clips Maryland with scattered, mostly light showers through mid-morning today, then takes a breather this afternoon before coming back stronger tonight into Friday. Today itself is the warm, muggy, almost summery outlier: highs in the low-to-upper 70s statewide, a stiff southerly flow, and just enough shower chances to keep the umbrella in the car. The real rain — and the potential for some heavy totals, especially south and east — arrives tonight through Friday.

The short version: warm and showery-but-manageable today, a wetter and potentially soggy Friday (especially Southern Maryland and the Shore), then a clean, seasonably cool weekend behind it.

Timing: Hour by Hour

• Early morning (now–9 AM): A cold front is sliding in from the west. Scattered, generally light showers possible anywhere, strongest/most likely over Washington and Frederick counties where showers and a rumble of thunder are already likely before sunrise.
• Mid-morning (9 AM–noon): Showers continue scattered and light as the front pushes through central MD; this is the best window for a passing shower almost anywhere in the state.
• Afternoon (noon–5 PM): A lull. The front stalls somewhere near/east of I-95, and most of Maryland dries out and warms into the 70s under partly-to-mostly cloudy skies.
• Evening (5–9 PM): Showers redevelop, especially south and east, as a wave of low pressure forms along the stalled front. Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore start seeing steadier rain develop after dark.
• Overnight into Friday morning: A steadier, heavier band of rain sets up along and east of the Bay — Southern Maryland, the Shore, and points east see the best chance of sustained, locally heavy rain. West of the Blue Ridge/Allegheny areas stay mostly dry overnight.

Region by Region

Western Maryland

Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 65°, SW wind 6-9 mph, 54% chance of rain showers early fading to mostly cloudy. Grab a light jacket for the lake — showers taper through the day. Low tonight 46°, mostly cloudy and quiet.
Allegany (Cumberland): High around 74° — a genuinely warm one for early November — with showers (43% chance) mainly through the morning before partial clearing. Low tonight near 50°, mostly cloudy and calm. This side of the mountains stays largely out of the heavier Friday rain.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): Showers and a few rumbles of thunder likely overnight into daybreak (69% chance), continuing as a chance through the day with a high near 75°. This is one of the better bets statewide for hearing thunder this morning. Clearing trends tonight with lows around 54°.
Frederick County: Similar story — showers and thunderstorms likely overnight (70% chance) and through much of Thursday (61% chance), high around 74°. A lingering chance of showers tonight, low near 58°.
Carroll County: Tracking with Frederick’s numbers — mid-70s high, showers/storms likely overnight and scattered through the day, mild and muggy-feeling low around 58° tonight.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County: High near 75° with a 44% chance of scattered showers through the day, mostly during the morning push. Clouds increase again tonight with showers and thunderstorms returning (47% chance), low around 61°.
Harford County: Tracking with the Baltimore grid — warm, upper 70s-adjacent mid-70s high, scattered AM showers, redeveloping shower/storm chances after dark.
Howard County: Same pattern — mid-70s, a round of morning showers, drier afternoon, wetter evening into Friday.
Anne Arundel County: High near 75°, muggy southerly breeze, scattered shower chances today with better rain odds building in tonight ahead of Friday’s main event.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery County: High near 74°, south wind 8-12 mph, 26% shower chance today — the driest stretch of the day is the afternoon. Showers increase tonight (42% chance), low around 60°.
Prince George’s County: Tracking closely with Montgomery — mid-70s, breezy and humid-feeling, scattered shower chance today, better rain odds overnight.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: High near 75°, south wind 7-12 mph, only a slight (19%) shower chance today — but tonight is the story here: a 69% chance of showers and thunderstorms likely develops as the wave of low pressure forms along the stalling front. This is one of the areas most likely to see the heavier rain totals (potentially 0.75-1.25″, locally up to 2″) overnight into Friday. Low tonight near 61°.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: High near 75° with just a slight chance of light rain today — the Shore stays relatively quiet through the afternoon. Tonight’s chance jumps to 76% as rain moves in, and Friday looks wet (95% chance, categorized as Rain, not just showers). Low tonight near 62°.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: High near 77° — the warmest reading on the board today — with just an 8% shower chance, so expect a mild, partly sunny afternoon. The flip comes tonight: a 74% chance of showers and thunderstorms, building toward a 100% chance of showers and storms Friday. Low tonight near 64°.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester County: High near 70° with a brisk south wind 12-17 mph — noticeably breezier at the beach than inland. Only a 6% shower chance today, but tonight ramps up to 65% as showers and thunderstorms move in, continuing into a wet Friday (99% chance). Wind stays onshore out of the south into the evening before veering southwest, which will build seas and keep surf elevated — beachgoers should expect rougher, choppier conditions and an increasing rip current risk as onshore flow strengthens overnight. Low tonight near 63°.

Active Hazards

No watches, warnings, or advisories are active for Maryland as of this writing. NWS Baltimore/Washington’s Hazardous Weather Outlook explicitly notes

MD Weather Alerts · issued 6:02 AM, Thursday, November 5