Calm, Clear & Chilly — Frost Possible in Spots Before a Big Warm-Up Tuesday

Good evening. After a blustery day that pushed gusts of 30-40 mph across the state — especially up around and north of Route 50 — the wind is finally standing down. NWS Baltimore/Washington (2:39 PM update) and NWS Mount Holly (1:55 PM update) both describe a quiet, clearing, radiational-cooling night as a warm front lifts through and high pressure noses in. It’s the kind of November night where the sky does something but the thermometer does the talking: patchy frost is possible in a few sheltered rural spots, especially toward the Eastern Shore and lower Delmarva, even though confidence is low since a mid-level cloud deck may slide in after midnight and cap the cooling. No watches, warnings, or advisories are posted for Maryland land areas tonight — only routine Small Craft Advisories on the water, detailed below.

Tonight’s Timeline

• 7-9 PM: Gusty NW/W winds from this afternoon finally relax to calm or near-calm across most of the state. Marine Small Craft Advisories expire this evening for the lower bay and coastal waters.
• 9 PM-Midnight: Skies partly to mostly clear overhead as the warm front lifts through aloft, bringing some high cloudiness that should stay thin enough to not spoil the view. Temperatures fall quickly with light winds.
• Midnight-Sunrise: Coldest stretch of the night. A mid-level cloud deck may build in from the south late, which could actually cap just how cold interior spots get. Patchy frost possible in sheltered low-lying areas, mainly central and eastern sections.
• Remaining Small Craft Advisory on the upper Chesapeake and tidal rivers continues until midnight as northwest winds gradually ease.

Region by Region

Western Maryland — Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): mostly clear, calm, and cold, dropping to around 37° with light west winds 6-9 mph. Allegany County (Cumberland): similarly tranquil, partly cloudy, near 38°, winds light out of the west. Good night for a fire in the stove if you’ve got one going; nothing falling from the sky tonight.

Northern & Central Maryland — Washington County (Hagerstown): partly cloudy, dropping to around 35° — the coldest reading in this corridor — with light southwest winds. Frederick and Carroll counties: partly cloudy, near 36°, light west winds under 10 mph. Valley floors and low fields here are your best bet for a touch of frost if that cloud deck holds off.

Baltimore Metro — Baltimore City & County and Harford County: partly cloudy, around 42°, light west winds 2-8 mph — the city holding the mildest numbers in central Maryland thanks to the urban heat footprint. Howard and Anne Arundel counties: similar, mid-40s to low 40s depending on proximity to the urban core and the bay. Quiet and comfortable for an evening walk, just grab a jacket.

DC Suburbs — Montgomery and Prince George’s counties: partly cloudy, settling near 39°, light west winds. A touch cooler than downtown Baltimore but nothing dramatic — a calm, clear suburban night.

Southern Maryland — Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary’s counties: mostly clear and calm, dropping to around 38°, light west winds 2-7 mph. Pleasant stargazing weather if you’re out near the water.

Upper Eastern Shore — Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, and Caroline counties: mostly clear, milder than the western counties thanks to bay influence, around 43° with west winds 5-10 mph.

Lower Eastern Shore — Dorchester, Wicomico, and Somerset counties: mostly clear, near 36°, light west winds. This is one of the areas Mount Holly flagged for patchy frost potential given the still-active growing season down here — if you’ve got tender plants out, give them a cover tonight just in case.

Ocean City & the Coast — Worcester County: mostly clear, mildest spot on the board tonight at around 44°, with northwest winds 6-13 mph slowly easing. Seas have been choppy today behind the frontal wind event; mariners should note the Small Craft Advisory for Atlantic coastal waters runs until 9 PM this evening before conditions relax.

Active Hazards

No watches, warnings, or advisories are posted for Maryland land areas tonight. On the water: Small Craft Advisory in effect until midnight EST tonight for the upper Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac waters (ANZ530-534, 537-543) as northwest winds gust 20-30 mph before easing. A separate Small Craft Advisory covering the lower bay and adjacent waters (ANZ535-536) runs until 6 PM EST this evening. No frost advisory has been issued for Maryland at this time, though patchy frost remains possible in sheltered low-lying spots, particularly on the Eastern Shore, where confidence is low due to late-night cloud cover.

Severe & Flooding

None expected tonight or through midweek. The next real weather-maker is Thursday, when widespread showers (70-90% chance) arrive with a cold front, bringing a 20-30% chance of embedded thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. More on that below.

Winds & Chesapeake Bay

Today’s gusty 30-40 mph northwest winds — the headline change in this afternoon’s LWX update — are winding down to calm or near-calm by around 7 PM. That’s exactly why the cold is setting up to be as effective as it is tonight: light winds plus clearing skies equals efficient radiational cooling. On the bay, Small Craft Advisories remain posted as noted above until winds relax below craft-advisory thresholds overnight.

Overnight Lows by Zone

Zone	Low
Western Mountains (Garrett/Allegany)	Around 37-38°
Hagerstown/Cumberland corridor	Around 35°
Frederick/Carroll	Around 36°
Baltimore/DC corridor	Upper 30s to low 40s
Southern Maryland	Around 38°
Eastern Shore	Mid 30s to low 40s
Ocean City	Around 44°

Looking Ahead

Tuesday is the pick of the week — sunny, dry, and remarkably mild with highs reaching the upper 60s to around 70° statewide (69° Frederick/Carroll and Hagerstown, 68° Baltimore, 67° Cumberland and DC suburbs, mid-60s on the shore). Wednesday holds onto that warmth with increasing clouds late as another system approaches, and a slight chance of evening showers creeping in over the western counties overnight into Thursday. Then Thursday brings the real change: widespread rain (79-92% chance across most of the state), a few embedded thunderstorms possible, and a sharp cooldown behind the front into the weekend — 10-15° below normal — with the Allegheny Mountains likely seeing their first accumulating snow of the season Friday into Saturday.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
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