Damp, Gray, and Cool — Showers Linger Into Sunday Across Maryland

Maryland remains stuck under a cold air damming wedge tonight — that stubborn northeasterly flow pinned against the mountains that keeps us gray, cool, and damp no matter what the calendar says about early October. NWS Baltimore/Washington (issued 3:31 PM) and NWS Wakefield (2:51 PM) both describe a stalled frontal boundary to our south feeding tropical moisture (PWATs running about two standard deviations above normal) up into the state, while NWS Mount Holly (2:39 PM) flags another round of showers arriving Sunday. Translation: tonight is mostly a waiting game under thick stratus, but rain returns in earnest before daybreak and sticks around for a good chunk of Sunday.

Timing — Tonight Into Sunday

• Now–10 PM: Lingering light showers wind down south of I-66/across Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore; elsewhere just a thick overcast ceiling, patchy fog possible in low-lying rural spots.
• 10 PM–3 AM: Quiet-ish stretch — mostly cloudy, a few spots of drizzle possible, especially Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore where rain chances never fully dropped off.
• 3 AM–Sunday Morning: The next disturbance rides along the stalled front — expect a band of light-to-locally-moderate rain to spread northeast across the state, reaching the DC suburbs and Baltimore metro by daybreak.
• Sunday Midday–Afternoon: Showers likely area-wide, heaviest and most persistent across Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore, where totals could approach a half inch or more toward Ocean City and Salisbury.
• Sunday Evening: A drying trend works in from the west as rain chances taper off before sunset.

Western Maryland

Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): Tonight dropping to near 49° under mostly cloudy skies, just a slight (14%) shower chance. Sunday climbs to around 65° with a slight chance of showers in the morning before clouds hang on. Calmer winds here than points east.

Allegany County (Cumberland): Tonight near 54°, mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers overnight. Sunday reaches about 66° with a better (36%) chance of rain showers lingering through the day. Patchy fog possible Sunday night as things dry out, with lows near 51°.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): Tonight near 56°, mostly cloudy with increasing shower chances late. Sunday is the wettest day here — rain showers likely, high around 63°, with a 58% chance of measurable rain through the day. Patchy fog develops Sunday night as temps settle near 55°.

Frederick County: Similar story — tonight near 57° under thickening clouds, showers filtering in toward dawn. Sunday’s high near 64° with rain showers likely (59% chance), lingering into Sunday evening before a slight chance persists overnight near 58° with patchy fog.

Carroll County: Tracking with Frederick — low near 57° tonight, high near 64° Sunday with rain showers likely most of the day, tapering to a slight chance overnight.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: Overnight lows near 61° with a 32% chance of rain showers developing, mainly after midnight. Sunday’s high around 65° with rain showers likely (59% chance) — umbrella weather for Ravens tailgates and any Sunday errands. A slight chance of showers lingers Sunday night near 61° with patchy fog possible toward dawn Monday.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties: Tonight near 58° with a 34% shower chance increasing toward dawn. Sunday’s high near 64° with rain showers likely (59%), easing to a slight chance Sunday night as lows settle near 58° under cloudy skies.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s Counties: This is one of the wetter corners tonight — rain showers likely through the evening with lows near 59° (67% chance earlier, still 59% overnight). Sunday stays unsettled with a high near 66° and rain showers likely (61% chance) continuing much of the day before a slight chance and clearing clouds move in Sunday night near 60°.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline Counties: Rain showers likely tonight with lows near 59° (61% chance). Sunday brings a high near 68° with a continued chance of showers (52%), easing to a slight chance Sunday night near 62° with patchy fog as skies clear.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset Counties: Among the wettest spots on the map — rain showers likely tonight, low near 61° (70% chance). Sunday stays soggy with a high near 69° and a 72% chance of rain showers lasting much of the day, easing to a chance (34%) Sunday night near 62° as clouds slowly break.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester County sees the wettest and breeziest conditions in the state tonight: rain showers likely with a low near 64° and northeast winds around 16 mph. Sunday is a washout risk for beach plans — rain showers with an 82% chance, high near 69°, winds northeast 8 to 15 mph. Showers taper to a chance (43%) Sunday night as the low drops to near 62°.

Surf & Beach: Per NWS Wakefield’s surf zone forecast, a moderate rip current risk is in effect through the weekend. Surf height running 2 to 3 feet, water temps in the mid 60s. Showers likely Sunday at the coast — not a great beach day ahead, and swimmers should especially heed the rip current flags regardless of the rain.

Tides (Ocean City Fishing Pier): Sunday — low 8:15 AM, high 2:50 PM.

Active Hazards

As of this writing, there are no active watches, warnings, or advisories for Maryland land areas. Marine interests should note that NWS Baltimore/Washington is watching for Small Craft Advisories to develop on the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac by midday Monday into Monday night, once a stronger cold front sweeps through and winds ramp up behind it. Nothing posted for Maryland waters yet tonight.

Severe & Flooding Threat

No severe weather or flash flooding is expected tonight or Sunday. This is a soaking, not a deluge — rainfall amounts are generally light (a trace to a few tenths of an inch) across central and western Maryland, with the better totals, potentially a half inch to around three-quarters of an inch, confined to Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore closer to the stalled front. Confidence is high that this stays a nuisance rain event rather than anything flood-prone.

Winds & Chesapeake Bay

Light-to-moderate northeast winds prevail across the state tonight, generally 5 to 10 mph inland and running higher at the coast (near 15 to 16 mph in Ocean City). The Chesapeake Bay remains under a northerly flow regime tied to the CAD wedge — nothing advisory-level yet, but boaters should watch for building winds and seas as we head into Monday, when a stronger cold front is expected to necessitate Small Craft Advisories.

Overnight Lows by Zone

Zone	Low Tonight
Western Mountains (Garrett)	~49°
Cumberland/Hagerstown	54–56°
Frederick/Carroll	~57°
Baltimore/DC Corridor	58–61°
Southern Maryland	~59°
Eastern Shore (Upper/Lower)	59–61°
Ocean City	~64°

Looking Ahead

Monday brings real change: a stronger cold front sweeps through, clearing out the clouds and ushering in increasing sunshine along with gusty northwest winds (20 to 25 mph in the afternoon). Highs Monday climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the state, with upper 50s to 60s in the mountains. Behind that front, a dry and much cooler pattern sets up for early next week — frost and freezing temperatures are possible west of the Blue Ridge (Garrett County especially) both Monday night and Tuesday night, so bring in sensitive plants if you’re out that way. Temperatures gradually moderate again by midweek into the 70s at lower elevations.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
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