Clouds, Showers Hugging the Coast & Bay Today — Sunday’s the Wetter Day

Good morning. The cold front that brought Friday’s warmth to a close has pushed south of Maryland overnight, but it isn’t going anywhere fast — NWS Baltimore/Washington (4:06 AM) and NWS Mount Holly (3:35 AM) both describe a boundary that’s going to stall just south of us and become the focus for a wave of low pressure riding north late tonight into Sunday. Translation: today is the in-between day — mostly cloudy, cool for early October, with scattered showers mainly along the Bay and the coast — while Sunday looks like the wetter, more organized rain day across nearly the whole state. No active watches or warnings are posted for Maryland at this hour.

Timing at a Glance

• Early morning (now–9 AM): Patchy fog in the western mountains; lingering light rain/showers already affecting the Baltimore-DC corridor northward into Cecil County and the Upper Shore.
• Midday–afternoon: Western and central Maryland trend partly to mostly sunny as drier air noses in from the north. The Eastern Shore, Southern Maryland, and the coast stay mostly cloudy with showers likely lingering longer, especially Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset, and Worcester.
• Tonight: Clouds increase again statewide as the stalled front and developing wave of low pressure pull in a fresh batch of showers, spreading north from the south-central counties after dark.
• Sunday: This is the main event — widespread rain, likely heavier at times, especially east of the mountains, as tropical moisture overruns the boundary. Showers should wind down Sunday evening.

Western Maryland

Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): A quiet, pleasant day for the mountains — patchy morning fog gives way to mostly sunny skies, high near 60°. Winds light out of the east, 3-7 mph. Rain chances are minimal today (5%) but creep back up Sunday (35%) as showers arrive, with a high near 64° and increasing clouds. Overnight tonight, lows dip to around 50° under mostly cloudy skies.

Allegany County (Cumberland): Mostly sunny and seasonable, high near 69°, light northeast wind. Showers hold off until tonight (29% chance after midnight) and become more likely Sunday (50%) with a high near 67°. Tonight’s low settles near 55°.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): Partly sunny, high near 69°, northeast wind around 7 mph — a solid day to be outdoors. Clouds thicken tonight with a 29% shower chance developing after midnight, low near 57°. Sunday turns wetter with rain showers likely (65% chance), high near 65°.

Frederick & Carroll Counties: Similar story — partly sunny today, high around 69°, light northeast breeze. Showers build in late tonight (27% chance, low near 58°), then Sunday brings a 75% chance of rain showers with a high near 65° and a cloudy, damp feel.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: Mostly cloudy today with a high around 71°, northeast winds near 8 mph — comfortable despite the gray skies, with only an 18% shower chance through the afternoon. Clouds hold tight tonight (low near 61°, 26% shower chance developing late). Sunday is the wet one here too: rain showers likely, 75% chance, high near 67°, with the WPC’s Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook touching our eastern counties given potential for very moisture-rich air (2″ or better precipitable water) streaming up ahead of the wave of low pressure.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties: Cloudy with a slight chance of showers lingering from overnight (29% today), high near 67°. Showers become more likely tonight (37%, low near 58°) and Sunday is the wettest day by far — 84% chance of rain showers, high near 65°, with rain likely spreading through the day rather than clearing.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert & St. Mary’s Counties: Rain showers likely today, 66% chance, high near 64°, with a damp, raw feel under northeast winds 5-9 mph. Showers continue tonight (49% chance, low near 59°) before Sunday brings the heaviest coverage yet — 85% chance of rain showers, high near 66°. Showers taper Sunday night (28%) ahead of a drying, much cooler Monday (high near 71° but falling fast after dark to around 50°).

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot & Caroline Counties: Rain showers likely today, 70% chance, high near 68°, under northeast winds 5-10 mph — plan on a soggy day here, among the wettest spots on the Shore. Showers continue tonight (42%, low near 59°), then Sunday is the big rain day with a 91% chance of showers, high near 68°. Lingering showers (39%) continue into Sunday night before drying out Monday.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico & Somerset Counties: Showers likely from the start of the day, 69% chance, high near 66°, northeast winds around 10 mph. Rain continues through tonight (62% chance, low near 62°) and persists into Sunday (77% chance, high near 69°), with lingering showers Sunday night (51%) before conditions improve Monday.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester County: Rain showers likely today, 69% chance, high near 67°, with brisk northeast winds around 15 mph choppening the surf. A Moderate Rip Current Risk is in effect from 8 AM through this evening — surf running 2 to 3 feet, water temps in the mid 60s, so swimmers should stay alert and heed any posted flags. Showers continue tonight (65% chance, low near 65°) and persist into Sunday (77% chance, high near 69°) with surf holding at 2 to 3 feet and the rip risk remaining Moderate. Low tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier is around 7:07 AM, high around 1:39 PM today.

Active Hazards

No active watches, warnings, or advisories are posted for Maryland at this time. The one marine item worth flagging: Small Craft Advisories remain in effect on the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac through early this afternoon as northeast winds stay breezy, especially on the open Bay and the coastal waters off Worcester County. Boaters should expect choppy conditions into midday before winds ease somewhat.

Severe & Flooding

No severe weather is expected. The main concern is rainfall totals building up Sunday into Sunday night as a wave of low pressure rides the stalled frontal boundary and taps into deep tropical moisture — the Weather Prediction Center has our eastern Maryland counties in a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook given the potential for very moisture-rich air. This isn’t a severe setup, but some locally heavier downpours are possible, particularly east of the mountains, before showers wind down Sunday evening.

Winds & Chesapeake Bay

Winds run northeast at 5 to 10 mph inland today, gusting higher toward the coast and the open Bay (around 15 mph at Ocean City), enough to keep a Small Craft Advisory in force through early afternoon. Bay and tidal Potomac waters should see some relief by evening before another round of breezy conditions returns behind Monday’s cold front.

Overnight Lows by Zone

Looking Ahead

Sunday is the day to watch — rain showers likely to widespread across essentially the entire state, with highs mostly in the mid-to-upper 60s, before showers taper off Sunday evening as the system finally pulls away. Behind it, a real pattern change arrives: Canadian high pressure builds in Monday night into midweek, ushering in the coldest air of the season so far. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday fall into the upper 50s to 60s, with widespread mid-to-upper 30s west of the mountains and a real frost/freeze threat there Monday and Tuesday nights — sensitive outdoor plants should be protected. Temperatures slowly rebound toward the 70s by late next week as the dry pattern holds.