A Gorgeous Dry Cold Front Today, Bay Smooth by Afternoon — Isaias Watch Continues

Good morning. A dry cold front slides through Maryland today — per NWS Baltimore/Washington (1:41 AM) and NWS Mount Holly (5:48 AM), it’s largely moisture-starved, so don’t expect much more than a stray sprinkle in the far western mountains. What you WILL notice: a shift to brisk W/NW winds, gusts near 20-25 mph (locally near 30 in higher terrain), and — thanks to downsloping off the mountains — temperatures that actually climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s for many spots this afternoon, warmer than yesterday despite the frontal passage. Humidity drops too. It’s a strange, pleasant kind of front: all wind, no rain, and a reward of a gorgeous October afternoon. The bigger story remains out at sea — the remnants of what’s now Hurricane Isaias are tracked to arrive late this weekend, with rain chances building Saturday night into Sunday.

Timing Today

• Early morning (now–9 AM): Mostly clear to partly cloudy, light southerly flow ahead of the front; coolest hour of the day.
• Mid-morning (9 AM–Noon): Frontal passage moves through — essentially dry, maybe a passing cloud bank. Winds begin shifting W/NW and picking up.
• Afternoon (Noon–5 PM): Sunny skies statewide, winds W/NW 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph (near 30 mph in the Alleghenies/western ridges). Warmest stretch of the day as downsloping drives highs well above normal.
• Evening/Overnight: Winds relax, skies stay clear to mostly clear, temperatures fall quickly under drier air — a crisp, comfortable night statewide.

Western Maryland

Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 65° under sunny skies, W winds 5-12 mph. A rogue shower can’t be fully ruled out with the frontal passage (8% chance) but most will stay dry. Clear and cool tonight, dipping to around 44°. Beautiful lake-country fall day — grab a sweater for the evening.

Allegany County (Cumberland): Sunny and warmer, high around 73°, W winds 3-12 mph. Dry front passage. Clear tonight, low around 47°.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): Sunny, high around 75°, winds W 3-13 mph with the breeziest gusts of the day in the afternoon. Clear to mostly clear tonight, low near 48°.

Frederick County: Sunny and the warmest spot in this zone — high around 76°, W winds 2-10 mph. Clear tonight, low around 51°.

Carroll County: Shares Frederick’s numbers closely — sunny, high near 76°, breezy W winds. Clear and comfortable tonight near 51°.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County: Sunny and the warmest reading we’ve got on the board today — high around 78°, W winds 5-12 mph. Clear overnight, low around 54°. A near-perfect day for anything outdoors.

Harford County: Tracks with Baltimore — sunny, high near 78°, breezy W winds easing by evening. Clear tonight, low around 54°.

Howard County: Same sunny, high-70s pattern — around 78° this afternoon, clear and comfortably cool tonight near 54°.

Anne Arundel County: Sunny, high around 78° inland, slightly more tempered near the Bay shoreline. W winds 5-12 mph. Clear tonight, low around 54°. Boaters: see Marine section below — the Small Craft Advisory covers area waters through this evening.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery County: Sunny, high around 76°, W winds 5-12 mph. Mostly clear tonight, low near 52°.

Prince George’s County: Very similar — sunny, high near 76-77°, breezy afternoon winds easing after sunset. Mostly clear tonight, low around 52°.

Southern Maryland

Charles County: Sunny, high around 77°, W winds near 8 mph. Clear to mostly clear tonight, low around 53°.

Calvert County: Sunny, high near 77°, breezy W winds off the Bay. Mostly clear tonight, low around 53°. Marine interests along the Bay shoreline should note SCA conditions easing by this afternoon.

St. Mary’s County: Essentially matching Calvert — sunny, high around 77°, mostly clear and mild tonight near 53°.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil County: Sunny, high around 76°, winds W 5-15 mph — among the breezier spots today. Partly cloudy tonight, low near 55°.

Kent County: Tracks with the Easton grid — sunny, high around 76°, breezy. Partly cloudy tonight, low around 55°.

Queen Anne’s County: Sunny, high near 76°, gusty W winds especially near the Bay Bridge corridor. Partly cloudy tonight, low around 55°.

Talbot County: Sunny, high around 76°, winds W 5-15 mph. Partly cloudy tonight, low near 55°. Choptank River under SCA through this morning — see Marine notes.

Caroline County: Sunny, high near 76°, slightly less wind-exposed inland. Partly cloudy tonight, low around 55°.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester County: Sunny and the warmest shore reading today — high around 81°, W winds 6-12 mph. Mostly clear tonight, low near 51°. Tangier Sound under Small Craft Advisory through early morning.

Wicomico County (Salisbury): Sunny, high near 81°, breezy W winds. Mostly clear tonight, low around 51°.

Somerset County: Sunny, high around 81°, winds W 6-12 mph. Mostly clear tonight, low near 51°.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester County: Sunny, high around 76°, W winds 7-13 mph. Mostly clear tonight, low near 56°. At the beach: surf height around 2 feet, rip current risk LOW, water temperature around 70°, UV Index moderate. High tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier at 6:16 AM, low tide 12:32 PM. A fine, breezy beach day — just mind the gusty onshore-turned-offshore wind shift as the front passes.

Active Hazards

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Maryland tidal waters from 6 AM this morning until 6 PM this evening, covering the main stem Chesapeake Bay up to Pooles Island, the tidal Choptank River, Tangier Sound, and the lower tidal Potomac River — south to southwest winds gusting around 20 knots. Some zones (the upper Potomac and far southern waters) carry earlier end times of 6 AM or 8 AM as the front clears them first. Winds will transition today to the west and northwest, bringing fresh SCA-level gusts over the upper tidal Potomac and upper Chesapeake Bay/Baltimore Harbor before dropping below advisory criteria by late this afternoon. No other watches, warnings, or advisories are active for land areas of Maryland at this time.

Severe Weather & Flooding

None expected today or through the weekend proper. The front passing through is dry and essentially benign — no severe thunderstorm or flooding concerns locally. The next item to watch is Sunday, when remnant moisture from Hurricane Isaias could bring rain and an outside chance of isolated severe weather to Maryland, though confidence in exact track, timing, and impacts remains low this many days out. We’ll keep tracking it daily.

Heat, Humidity & Winds

Humidity drops noticeably behind the front thanks to downsloping flow, making for a drier, more comfortable afternoon despite the warmer numbers. Winds are the headline feature today: W/NW at 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph area-wide, and occasional gusts near 30 mph possible over the western ridges and higher terrain of Garrett and Allegany counties. Secure anything loose outdoors — patio furniture, lightweight decor, trash cans out for pickup.

Chesapeake Bay & Marine

SCA conditions persist on the Bay and tidal rivers through this morning into early evening as outlined above, with S-to-SW winds transitioning W/NW through the day. Conditions drop below advisory criteria by late Thursday afternoon and stay quiet through Friday. A few sensitive tide gauge sites are seeing minor action-stage flooding this morning from elevated anomalies, but nothing widespread. Watch for tide levels to begin climbing again by the second half of the weekend as Isaias remnants approach — exact magnitude depends on wind direction and strength as the system nears.

Tonight’s Lows by Zone

Zone	Low Tonight
Western Mountains (Garrett)	Around 44°
Cumberland/Hagerstown	Around 47-48°
Frederick/Carroll	Around 51°
Baltimore/DC Corridor	Low-to-mid 50s
Southern Maryland	Around 53°
Eastern Shore	Low-to-mid 50s
Ocean City	Around 56°

Looking Ahead

Friday: Seasonable and dry statewide, with highs easing a touch into the low-to-mid 70s across most of central and western Maryland (around 65-73° west to east, cooler in Garrett). High pressure builds in, bringing another clear, pleasant day, though increasing high clouds arrive Friday night as a preview of weekend changes.

Saturday: High pressure begins retreating northeast, letting clouds from Isaias’s remnants thicken through the day. Still dry for most of Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, but confidence is building that rain arrives by Saturday night into Sunday — most likely an inch or two area-wide, though track and timing remain uncertain. We’ll have updates as the system comes into better focus.