Front Sweeps Through Tonight — Storms, Fog, Then Cool Relief

Tonight’s the payoff for a sticky, unsettled Monday: a cold front, already sparking showers and a few gusty thunderstorms across the northern and western counties this afternoon (per NWS Baltimore/Washington’s 3:41 PM update), slides southeast through the evening and clears Maryland after midnight. Behind it, patchy fog settles into the river valleys, and Tuesday arrives noticeably less muggy. Kent and Queen Anne’s counties are under a Special Weather Statement for the strongest of this evening’s storms.

Timing Tonight

• Now–8 PM: Scattered showers and a few gusty thunderstorms continue drifting southeast from Western and Central Maryland into the Baltimore/DC corridor and Upper Shore. A few storms could gust 35–50 mph; isolated near-severe gusts aren’t ruled out, especially Central and Southern MD as instability peaks near sunset.
• 8 PM–Midnight: The line pushes into the Baltimore Metro, Southern Maryland, and both Shores. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours are the main threats; a stray severe gust is possible but confidence is low.
• Midnight–Sunrise Tuesday: The front clears the Eastern Shore and coast. Skies begin clearing behind it, especially west of I-81/I-70, with patchy fog developing in the western river valleys and low spots as the ground dries out from earlier rain.

Western Maryland

Garrett County (Deep Creek/Oakland): Low around 62°, with a 65% chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening tapering to patchy fog overnight. Winds light, W around 1-6 mph. Deep Creek Lake could see a bumpy evening on the water before things settle.
Allegany County (Cumberland): Afternoon high near 87° gives way to a low around 66°, with a 27% chance of lingering showers/storms early, then patchy fog in the valley overnight. Winds NW 1-6 mph.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): Low near 69° (upper 60s), with isolated storms possible early tonight, then clouds decrease. Winds NW 2-7 mph.
Frederick County: Low around 70°, 38% chance of scattered showers/storms this evening before clearing. Winds NW up to 7 mph.
Carroll County: Shares Frederick’s gridpoint — low near 70°, same evening storm chance, clearing after midnight.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: All share the Central Maryland gridpoint — low around 73°, and this is the highest overnight rain chance region at 67%, with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing into the evening before clouds break up after midnight. Winds NW 1-7 mph. If you’re heading to an evening game or cookout cleanup, keep an eye on the radar through 10 PM.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties: Low near 72°, 37% chance of scattered showers/storms this evening, mostly cloudy skies lingering behind the front. Winds NW 3-7 mph, gusty in any storm.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: Low around 72°, 35% chance of scattered storms this evening — this corridor, per the AFD, has some of the better instability and DCAPE tonight, so a stronger gust or two is possible before midnight. Winds W around 5 mph.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: Low near 73°, 35% chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening before partial clearing. Kent and Queen Anne’s are covered under tonight’s Special Weather Statement for storms capable of brief gusty winds and downpours — have a way to get warnings if you’re out on the water or camping.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: Low around 74°, the region’s highest overnight rain chance on the Shore at 40%, with showers and a few thunderstorms possible into the evening before decreasing. Winds W 2-6 mph.

Ocean City & the Coast

Low near 74° tonight, with a 33% chance of showers/storms developing by evening after an otherwise sunny, comfortable afternoon (high near 83°). Surf holds around 2 feet with a low rip current risk. Tides at the Ocean City Fishing Pier: low around 6:08 AM, high around 12:24 PM Tuesday. Winds W around 6 mph tonight, turning northeast Tuesday afternoon.

Active Hazards

Special Weather Statement (Moderate): Kent and Queen Anne’s counties, in effect this evening for showers and thunderstorms capable of brief gusty winds and heavy downpours as the line tracks through. No watches or warnings are posted elsewhere in Maryland at this time. Boaters on the Bay and tidal Potomac should watch for possible Special Marine Warnings tied to any stronger cells crossing the water this evening.

Severe & Flooding Threat

This isn’t shaping up as a widespread severe setup — shear is limited and DCAPE is only marginal (400-600 J/kg, a bit higher toward Southern Maryland). But steep low-level lapse rates mean a few storms, mainly Central and Southern MD into the Upper Shore, could produce gusty winds in the 35-50 mph range with locally heavy downpours through midnight. Flooding isn’t the headline concern tonight, but any storm that stalls briefly could produce a quick ponding of water on roads given how saturated the ground already is.

Humidity, Winds & the Bay

Dew points remain uncomfortably high tonight — upper 60s to mid 70s — so it’ll stay muggy even as temperatures fall. Behind the front Tuesday, dew points ease into the 60s, and it’ll finally feel more comfortable. Winds are generally light (5-8 mph) shifting northwest behind the front tonight, becoming north to northeast Tuesday. Boaters should stay alert for any brief gusty storm cells over the Bay and tidal Potomac before midnight.

Overnight Lows by Zone

Zone	Low
Western Mountains (Garrett)	~62°
Cumberland/Hagerstown	66-69°
Frederick/Carroll	~70°
Baltimore/DC Corridor	72-73°
Southern Maryland	~72°
Eastern Shore	73-74°
Ocean City	~74°

Looking Ahead

Tuesday: A much drier, less humid day statewide as the front clears out and high pressure builds in. Highs mostly mid 80s to near 89° in the Baltimore/DC corridor and lower Shore, upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountains. A slight chance of lingering showers lingers south of I-66/I-64 into the afternoon, mainly south of Maryland, but most of the state stays dry with sun.
Wednesday: Dry and warm again, highs near 85-89° across Central Maryland and the Shore, with the next cold front approaching overnight bringing renewed shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday night into Thursday — confidence is still building on exact coverage, but Southern and Southeastern Maryland look most likely to see the stronger storms.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MDWA — your neighbors watching the sky so you don’t have to. Stay dry, stay safe, Maryland.