Soggy, Raw Tuesday — Rain, Gusty NE Winds & Coastal Flood Watches Statewide

Good morning. Grab the rain jacket and maybe a hat that won’t blow off — it’s a raw, wet, blustery one out there. NWS Baltimore/Washington (issued 3:59 AM), Mount Holly (4:50 AM), and Wakefield (3:22 AM) are all singing the same tune this morning: showers expanding in coverage, a stubborn cold-air-damming wedge locked in against a strong high to our north, and a persistent northeast fetch that’s going to hang around through Wednesday. Today will likely be the wettest, and possibly the stormiest, day of this multi-day pattern, with an isolated thunderstorm not out of the question south and east. Temperatures are running well below normal — think late-September doing an early-October impression.

Timing: Hour by Hour

• Early morning (now–9 AM): Showers already moving through, mainly along and south of the D.C.-to-Shore corridor, with patchy dense fog lingering in the western valleys and mountains.
• Mid-morning into afternoon (9 AM–4 PM): Rain becomes more widespread areawide as the boundary lifts back north. This is the best window for a rogue embedded thunderstorm, especially Southern Maryland and the Upper/Lower Shore.
• Afternoon into evening (4–8 PM): Showers continue, on and off, with gusty northeast winds picking up further, especially toward the Bay and coast.
• Overnight (8 PM–6 AM Wed): Rain persists, heaviest exit is not expected until Wednesday — far northeast Maryland dries first Wednesday morning, with the rest of the state clearing out from northeast to southwest through Wednesday night.

By the time this system fully wraps up, most of Maryland should pick up around 1 to 2 inches of rain — a genuinely welcome delivery given how dry we’ve been.

Region by Region

Western Maryland

Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): High around 57°, low-to-upper 50s, with a soupy 83% chance of rain and lingering areas of fog burning off slow. East winds 9-13 mph keep it feeling clammy and cool all day — sweatshirt weather at the lake.
Allegany (Cumberland): High near 59°, patchy fog early, then showers likely (91% chance) through the day. Winds light out of the northeast at 7 mph, but the persistent drizzle will make it feel like a lost October day.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington Co. (Hagerstown): High near 59°, rain showers likely most of the day (87% chance), winds NE 8-12 mph. Not a washout, but umbrellas stay out.
Frederick: High around 60°, rain showers likely (88%), gusty NE winds to 13 mph. A soggy commute both directions.
Carroll: Same story as Frederick — around 60° with rain likely most of the day, breezy from the northeast.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County: High near 62°, rain showers likely (86% chance), NE winds gusting near 14 mph — a chilly, wet day for the harbor.
Harford: Similar to Baltimore Co. — near 62°, rain on and off, breezy NE flow.
Howard: Also around 62°, wet with gusty northeast winds through the afternoon.
Anne Arundel: Near 62-63°, rain showers likely, and with the persistent onshore flow, keep an eye on minor tidal nuisance flooding around Annapolis tonight.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery: High near 61°, rain showers likely (84% chance), gusty NE winds to 14 mph — a raw, dreary day for Silver Spring and Rockville alike.
Prince George’s: Same setup — around 61°, wet most of the day, breezy.

Southern Maryland

Calvert: High near 66°, and this is where an isolated thunderstorm is most plausible today (showers and thunderstorms, 84% chance). Winds NE 12-16 mph.
Charles: Similar — mid-60s, showers and possible embedded storms, breezy from the northeast.
St. Mary’s: Also near 66°, wet with gusty winds; expect building tidal concerns tonight into Wednesday given the sustained onshore flow.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil: High near 68°, showers and thunderstorms possible (80% chance), NE winds 10-15 mph.
Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: All tracking with the Easton gridpoint — high near 68°, showers and a rumble of thunder possible, breezy northeast winds. Minor tidal flooding is a concern along the Chester, Choptank, and Eastern Bay shorelines with the sustained onshore push.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: High near 71°, only about a 49% shower chance today (better rain chances arrive Wednesday), but winds NE 9-16 mph and a Coastal Flood Watch is up for all three counties — moderate tidal flooding possible with the persistent onshore flow, worsening into Wednesday’s high tide cycle.

Ocean City & the Coast

High near 72° at the coast today, but it will not feel like a beach day. Breezy-to-windy northeast winds 20-26 mph, a 43% shower chance, surf running 4 to 7 feet, and a High Rip Current Risk in effect through Wednesday evening. Dangerous shore-break is expected — NWS specifically flags neck and spinal injury potential from waves breaking directly on the beach, even for strong swimmers. Tides at the Ocean City Fishing Pier: low near 10:48 AM, high near 5:21 PM. Minor coastal flooding is expected, worsening into a bigger event Wednesday when surf builds to an alarming 8 to 12 feet and winds turn genuinely windy (NE 30-35 mph).

Active Hazards

• Coastal Flood Advisory (Minor): Maryland Beaches and Inland Worcester — minor tidal flooding possible, in effect through the advisory period.
• Coastal Flood Watch (Moderate): Maryland Beaches, Inland Worcester, and Dorchester/Wicomico/Somerset — moderate tidal flooding possible as onshore flow strengthens, with the greatest risk building into Wednesday.
• Beach Hazards Statement (Moderate): Maryland Beaches, through Wednesday evening — dangerous shore-break capable of causing neck and spinal injuries.
• High Surf Advisory (Minor): Maryland Beaches, in effect from 2 AM Wednesday through 6 PM Thursday, with seas building to 8-12 feet.
• High Rip Current Risk: Maryland Beaches, through Wednesday evening.
• Marine — Small Craft Advisory: All Maryland tidal waters and the Bay, today through tonight, with gusts to around 30 knots.
• Marine — Gale Warning: Waters surrounding Southern Maryland, Wednesday into Wednesday night (upgraded overnight from a Gale Watch).

Severe & Flooding Threat

Severe weather is not the headline today, but isolated thunderstorms embedded within the broader shower activity can’t be ruled out, especially Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore this afternoon, where instability and Gulf-Stream-fed moisture are a touch higher. Any storm that does fire could produce brief heavy downpours, but this is fundamentally a soaking-rain, not a severe-weather, setup. Flooding-wise, the bigger story is tidal, not flash: persistent northeast winds are piling water into the Bay and coastal bays, with moderate to locally major tidal flooding possible by Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide, especially around Annapolis, the lower Shore, and Ocean City’s back bays. That tidal flooding risk will linger for several tide cycles given how long this wind pattern is expected to hold.

Winds & Bay/Marine

Northeast winds are the theme of the week — gusting 15-30 mph on land depending on location, and considerably stronger on the water. Small Craft Advisories cover all Maryland tidal waters today through tonight, with a Gale Warning taking over for the waters around Southern Maryland Wednesday into Wednesday night. If you’ve got a boat on a mooring anywhere from the Patapsco down through the Potomac and lower Bay, this is not the week to leave it unattended.

Tonight’s Lows by Zone

Zone	Low Tonight
Western Mountains (Garrett)	Around 49°
Cumberland/Allegany	Around 52°
Hagerstown	Around 52°
Frederick/Carroll	Around 52°
Baltimore/DC corridor	Mid-50s (55°)
Southern Maryland	Around 60°
Eastern Shore (Upper/Lower)	Upper 50s to lower 60s
Ocean City	Around 66°

Looking Ahead

Wednesday brings more of the same script — cloudy, rainy, and cool, with highs generally in the upper 50s to mid-60s statewide (upper 60s Southern MD/Shore), gusty NE winds, and the Gale Warning kicking in on Southern Maryland’s waters. Rain finally exits far northeast Maryland Wednesday morning, with drier air working slowly southwest through Wednesday night. Thursday turns drier areawide beneath mostly cloudy skies, though still cool with highs mostly in the 60s and winds staying gusty out of the northeast as a coastal low deepens offshore. A gradual warming trend, with better chances for sunshine, arrives Friday into the weekend.

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Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your director’s-cut forecast, delivered every morning so you know exactly what Maryland’s sky has planned. Stay dry out there.