Frost in the Mountains, a Nor’easter Offshore, and Coastal Flooding Through the Weekend

Good evening. There’s a Nor’easter spinning up off the coast tonight, and while it’s staying offshore and dry for most of us, it’s already reshaping the whole forecast — colder air, gusty north winds funneling down the state, frost in the high country, and a stubborn coastal flooding problem that isn’t done yet. NWS Baltimore/Washington (2:38 PM update, Hazardous Weather Outlook 5:06 PM), Mount Holly (1:22 PM), and Wakefield (3:05 PM) are all tracking the same storm from three different angles tonight, and the message is consistent: breezy, cool, and mostly dry inland, with the real action along the water.

Tonight’s Timeline

• Now–9 PM: Clouds gradually clear out west to east; western Maryland skies go clear first.
• 9 PM–Midnight: Winds ease a touch inland but stay gusty at the coast and over the Bay; temperatures begin falling fast under clearing skies in the mountains.
• Midnight–6 AM: Coldest window — radiational cooling sets in over Garrett County, frost develops in the higher terrain. Coastal areas see another high-tide flood cycle overnight.
• Toward dawn Friday: Patchy frost lingers in the Alleghenies before sun returns; elsewhere a crisp, breezy start.

Region by Region

Western Maryland

Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): Clear skies and light easterly winds tonight, with lows around 35° — cold enough for frost to form in spots, hence the Frost Advisory covering the western half of the county. Bundle up if you’re out late; this is jacket-and-gloves territory. Allegany (Cumberland): Mostly clear, lows near 45°, winds light out of the north — a much gentler night than up on the plateau.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): Partly cloudy, low around 46°, light north wind. Frederick & Carroll: Similar setup — partly cloudy skies, low near 47°, winds 3-7 mph. Comfortable sleeping weather with the windows cracked.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: Partly cloudy, low around 52°, north winds 6-10 mph — noticeably breezier than points west thanks to the pressure gradient with that offshore low. Anne Arundel also carries a Coastal Flood Warning tonight for tidal areas along the Bay and Severn/Magothy shorelines — expect minor to moderate inundation of low-lying roads and docks around the overnight high tide.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery & Prince George’s: Partly cloudy, low near 50°, winds 6-10 mph out of the north. Quiet night, nothing more than a jacket needed by early morning.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: Mostly cloudy, low around 55°, winds 9-14 mph out of the north — the breeziest overnight low of the I-95/Bay corridor. This is ground zero for tidal trouble: St. Mary’s carries a Coastal Flood Warning tonight (Solomons Island area continuing in minor-to-moderate flood through the weekend’s high tide cycles), while Charles and Calvert sit under Coastal Flood Advisories for the tidal Potomac and Patuxent shorelines. If you park near the water in Solomons or along the Patuxent, move it before the overnight high tide.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil: Breezy and cool, similar to the Baltimore corridor. Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: Mostly cloudy, low near 53°, north winds 10-15 mph. Queen Anne’s, Talbot, and Caroline are under a Coastal Flood Advisory tonight for the Chester and Choptank shorelines — minor nuisance flooding around the high tide, docks and low roads the usual suspects.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: Mostly cloudy, low around 56°, winds a stiff 13-20 mph out of the north. This trio is under a full Coastal Flood Warning tonight — this is the more serious tier, with moderate to locally major tidal flooding (2-3 feet of inundation in vulnerable spots) continuing through tomorrow night and possibly into the weekend around Cambridge, Crisfield, and the Tangier Sound shoreline communities. If you’re anywhere near the water down there, plan around the tide charts, not the clock.

Ocean City & the Coast

The wildest night in the state by far. Ocean City sits at a low near 60° tonight, but the headline is wind and surf: north winds gusting 23 to 30 mph, seas building, and a Coastal Flood Warning in effect for both the beaches and inland Worcester County. A High Surf Advisory runs through 7 PM Friday with 6-to-11-foot surf expected by tomorrow, a Beach Hazards Statement and High Rip Current Risk both in effect through Friday evening, and a Wind Advisory for the coastal zone as gusts push toward 35-45 mph at times. Stay out of the water — this isn’t a wade-in-the-shallows kind of surf, it’s a stand-back-and-watch kind of surf. Boardwalk umbrellas, take note.

Active Hazards — Full List

• Coastal Flood Warning: Maryland Beaches (Worcester coast) and inland Worcester, Anne Arundel, St. Mary’s, and Dorchester/Wicomico/Somerset — moderate to locally major tidal flooding through tomorrow night, with some spots into the weekend.
• Coastal Flood Advisory: Charles, Calvert, and Queen Anne’s/Talbot/Caroline — minor tidal flooding through tonight/tomorrow’s high tide cycles.
• High Surf Advisory: Maryland Beaches, until 7 PM Friday — 6 to 11 foot surf.
• Beach Hazards Statement & High Rip Current Risk: Maryland Beaches, through Friday evening.
• Wind Advisory: Maryland Beaches (coastal Worcester), through this evening into Friday — gusts 35-45 mph possible at the immediate coast.
• Frost Advisory: Eastern Garrett and Western Garrett Counties, tonight into early Friday morning — lows as low as 33° expected, protect sensitive plants.

Severe & Flooding Threat

No severe weather is expected tonight — this is a wind-and-water event, not a thunderstorm one. The flooding concern is entirely coastal/tidal, driven by the persistent onshore flow wrapping around the developing Nor’easter. Confidence is high that moderate-to-major tidal flooding continues through Friday night in the hardest-hit spots (lower Eastern Shore, Solomons Island), with the exact track of the offshore low still the wildcard for how far north up the Bay the impacts creep. Baltimore and points north should see comparatively lower anomalies thanks to the strong northerly wind component working against Bay-wide surge.

Winds & Marine

Winds stay out of the north/northeast statewide overnight, gustiest closest to the coast and over open water. On the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac, Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all Maryland waters through Saturday morning, with a Gale Watch now posted for the lower Bay and lower Tidal Potomac from Friday afternoon through early Saturday afternoon — winds gusting 20 to 35 knots, with gale-force gusts possible if the low tracks closer to shore. If you’ve got a boat on a mooring anywhere south of Annapolis, this is the weekend to double-check your lines.

Overnight Lows by Zone

Zone	Low
Western Mountains (Garrett)	~35° (frost)
Cumberland/Hagerstown	45-46°
Frederick/Carroll	~47°
Baltimore/DC Corridor	50-52°
Southern Maryland	~55°
Eastern Shore (Upper/Lower)	53-56°
Ocean City	~60°

Looking Ahead

Friday: A repeat performance — sunny and pleasant inland with highs in the low-to-mid 70s across central Maryland (around 73° Hagerstown/Frederick/Cumberland, 75° Baltimore), but still breezy with north winds 10-15 mph, gusting higher. The coast stays unsettled: Ocean City only reaches the upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers, continued high surf, and dangerous rip currents. Tidal flooding continues at the Warning level in the same trouble spots. Saturday: The Nor’easter’s influence lingers — highs still in the low-to-mid 70s inland, upper 60s at the beach, with increasing shower chances area-wide (around 29% in Baltimore, near 30-44% toward the shore and coast) as the storm’s moisture wraps back in. Winds stay gusty out of the north/northwest. By Sunday and into next week, high pressure finally builds in, winds relax, and a warmer, calmer stretch takes hold before rain chances return late next week.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
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