Nor’easter Grinds In — Coastal Flood Warnings, Gale Warning on the Bay, Wind Advisory at the Shore

Good morning. The nor’easter that NWS Baltimore/Washington and Mount Holly have been tracking since midweek is parked east of the Delmarva this morning, and it’s not going anywhere fast. Expect a raw, windy, damp day statewide — chillier than late-September has any right to be — with rain filling in from the east through the afternoon while the mountains stay mostly dry a while longer. The bigger story remains the coast: widespread moderate-to-major tidal flooding, a Gale Warning on the upper Bay, and dangerous surf at Ocean City. This is a slow-moving system, and Sunday looks even wetter than today.

Timing — Hour by Hour

• Early morning (now–9 AM): Gusty north winds statewide, especially near the Bay and at the coast — Wind Advisory winds (gusts to 45 mph) still spinning down at Ocean City through 11 AM.
• Mid-morning (9 AM–noon): Light rain begins filling in along and east of I-95 — Baltimore, DC suburbs, Southern Maryland, the Eastern Shore. Western Maryland (Hagerstown westward) stays mostly dry.
• Afternoon (12–5 PM): Rain chances spread inland toward Frederick/Carroll; still largely dry west of the Blue Ridge/Alleghenies. Winds remain breezy, gusting 20-35 mph, higher near the Bay and coast. A stray thunder rumble possible right at Ocean City.
• Evening (5–9 PM): A lull is possible as the offshore low reaches its temporary northernmost point — rain may ease up briefly area-wide.
• Overnight: Rain redevelops and spreads, especially across the northern half of the state, as the low begins its slow pivot back toward New Jersey. Winds stay breezy; coastal flooding continues into the night.

Region by Region

Western Maryland

Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 65°, mostly sunny, light north winds 2-12 mph, essentially no rain today (1%). The driest, brightest spot on the map — a good day to get outside before Sunday’s rain chance (30%) creeps in. Lows tonight near 46°.
Allegany (Cumberland): High 73°, mostly sunny, winds north 6-14 mph, only a 2% rain chance. Comfortable, breezy fall day. Low near 57° tonight, with clouds increasing.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington Co. (Hagerstown): High 71°, partly sunny early with a slight chance of light rain later (16%), winds north 9-17 mph. Stays mostly dry through the day; the real rain arrives Sunday (70% chance). Low tonight 58°.
Frederick/Carroll: High 70°, partly sunny becoming cloudy with a 37% chance of light rain, mainly afternoon into evening. Winds north 12-17 mph. Low tonight around 58°, rain chance continuing (30%).

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: High near 66°, light rain likely (72%), breezy north winds around 17 mph — umbrella weather most of the day, cooler than average. Tonight, rain continues (54% chance), low near 57°. Sunday looks even wetter (83%).

DC Suburbs

Montgomery & Prince George’s: High 67°, light rain likely (67%), north winds 13-17 mph. A soggy Saturday for yard work and outdoor plans — keep the rain jacket handy. Low tonight 56°, rain continuing overnight (56%).

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: High near 65°, light rain (80% chance), winds north around 20 mph — one of the windier, wetter spots today. Low tonight 56°, rain likely continuing (65%). Minor Coastal Flood Advisories are up for Calvert, St. Mary’s, and Charles as tidal waters run above normal along the Patuxent and Potomac.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: High near 64°, rain showers likely (78%), winds north around 20 mph — a raw, wet day around the Chester, Choptank, and Eastern Bay. Tonight, showers continue (58%), low near 57°. Sunday brings the wettest chances yet (95%).

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: High 64°, light rain likely (71%), winds north 17-23 mph. This trio is under a Coastal Flood Warning — moderate to locally major tidal flooding expected along the Nanticoke, Wicomico, and Tangier Sound shorelines into tonight or early Sunday. Low tonight 56°, rain continuing (66%).

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester: High only in the mid-60s (gridpoint 64°), with light rain transitioning to showers and a slight thunderstorm chance this afternoon. Winds are the headline: north 28-32 mph with gusts near 45 mph early this morning, easing only slightly through the day. A Wind Advisory covers inland Worcester through 11 AM. Surf runs 7-11 feet with a High Surf Advisory in effect until 7 AM Sunday, and a High Rip Current Risk holds through Sunday evening — stay out of the water. High tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier is 7:44 AM, low tide 1:58 PM; expect the tidal flooding to run worst around the high-tide cycles. Low tonight near 59°, still breezy and wet.

Active Hazards — Full List

• Gale Warning (Chesapeake Bay): In effect through 10 PM tonight, now expanded to include the Bay north of Pooles Island, plus the Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point, Sandy Point to North Beach, North Beach to Drum Point, and Drum Point to Smith Point, plus the tidal Potomac and Patapsco/Baltimore Harbor. Boaters and Bay-goers should stay off the water.
• Coastal Flood Warning (Severe): Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset — moderate to major tidal flooding (2-3+ feet of inundation in vulnerable areas) continuing into Saturday night or early Sunday, with some middle-Bay spots seeing flooding persist through the weekend.
• Coastal Flood Warning (Severe): Maryland Beaches (Worcester coastal) and inland Worcester — same widespread moderate-to-major tidal flooding threat.
• Coastal Flood Advisory (Minor): Calvert, St. Mary’s, Charles — minor tidal flooding along the Patuxent and Potomac shorelines.
• Wind Advisory: Inland Worcester and the Maryland Beaches through 11 AM this morning — gusts to 45 mph possible near the coast before slowly easing.
• High Surf Advisory: Maryland Beaches, until 7 AM Sunday — 7 to 11 foot surf today.
• Beach Hazards Statement: Maryland Beaches, through Sunday evening — dangerous shore break capable of neck and spinal injury, even for strong swimmers.

Severe & Flooding Threat

No severe thunderstorm threat today — this is a wind-and-rain nor’easter story, not a lightning story, apart from an isolated rumble possible right along the Ocean City coast this afternoon. The bigger concern is coastal/tidal flooding: moderate to major inundation (2-3+ feet in vulnerable spots) continues along the lower Eastern Shore and Worcester coast into tonight or early Sunday, with some middle-Bay locations seeing flooding linger through the weekend. Confidence is high on continued coastal impacts; confidence is lower on exactly how far west the rain reaches today, with dry air working against westward expansion — the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge are the least likely spots to see measurable rain today.

Winds & Bay/Marine

This is a windy system from start to finish. Gusts of 20-35 mph are likely area-wide today, with gusts up to 40 mph possible near the Chesapeake Bay and higher still at the coast (45 mph early this morning at Ocean City). The Gale Warning reflects genuinely hazardous conditions on Bay waters through 10 PM. Winds ease only modestly Sunday before turning more northwesterly early next week.

Tonight’s Lows by Zone

Zone	Low
Western Mountains (Garrett)	~46°
Cumberland/Hagerstown	57-58°
Frederick/Carroll	~58°
Baltimore/DC corridor	56-57°
Southern Maryland	~56°
Eastern Shore	56-57°
Ocean City	~59°

Looking Ahead

Sunday is shaping up wetter than today across nearly the entire state as the nor’easter’s low pivots back toward the coast — rain likely to widespread rain, highs generally only in the low-to-mid 60s (upper 60s in the far west), and breezy conditions continuing. Some models keep the low far enough south/strong enough to boost rainfall totals; models disagree on exact track, so amounts remain uncertain, but northern and northeastern Maryland look likely to see the most rain regardless. Monday should bring a clear improvement — rain chances drop off sharply, though clouds may be slow to clear, with highs back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Calmer, milder weather then takes hold for much of next week, with highs in the 70s and even low 80s possible by midweek, before rain chances return again by next Friday into the following weekend.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.

Stay dry out there, Maryland — MDWA will have updates as this nor’easter finishes its slow spin offshore.