Nor’easter’s Last Gasp, Coastal Flood Advisories on the Shore, Then a Warm-Up

Good morning. The nor’easter that’s been parked off the coast for days is finally, mercifully, shuffling off toward New England, per both NWS Baltimore/Washington (4 AM) and NWS Mount Holly (4:13 AM). What’s left behind is a soggy, cloudy hangover: a few lingering showers and drizzle patches across north-central and northeastern Maryland this morning, fading by mid-morning, plus one more round or two of minor tidal flooding on the lower Eastern Shore and at the coast. After that, high pressure takes the wheel and steers us into a proper warming trend through midweek. NWS Wakefield (2:38 AM) has highs approaching 90° by Thursday — enjoy the calm while you can, because Friday brings a front and a bumpier weekend.

⏱ Timing Today

• 6–9 AM: Lingering light showers/drizzle possible, mainly north-central and northeast Maryland (Baltimore metro, Harford, Carroll, Frederick). Grid PoPs there run 17–30%.
• 9 AM–Noon: Shower/drizzle chances trend down; clouds remain thick area-wide.
• Afternoon: Mostly dry area-wide, though a stray sprinkle can’t be fully ruled out from leftover shallow moisture. Best chance of sun breaks is south and west.
• Evening/Overnight: Clouds linger, especially north. Patchy fog possible west of the mountains if skies clear enough.

🗺 Region by Region

Western Maryland

Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 59° — patchy drizzle early, then just cloudy. NW wind around 6 mph. Tonight down to about 52° with areas of fog forming in the hollows and around the lake — a good night to keep the fog lights handy if you’re out late.
Allegany (Cumberland): High 69°, mostly cloudy, light NW wind 3–7 mph, only a 6% shower chance. Tonight settles to 57° with patchy fog developing after clouds thin.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington Co. (Hagerstown): Cloudy skies, high around 70°, NW wind 5–8 mph, a modest 7% shower chance. Overnight low near 58°, still under a cloud deck.
Frederick: High 70° with isolated showers early tapering to cloudy skies (17% PoP), NW wind around 6 mph. Overnight low 59° with lingering clouds and an 11% shower chance.
Carroll: Shares Frederick’s grid — same story: low 70s by day, upper 50s overnight, isolated shower risk fading through the morning.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: This is ground zero for the morning’s leftover moisture — 30% chance of scattered showers overnight into early morning, tapering to just cloudy skies by afternoon. High near 71°, NW wind around 8 mph (breezy at times). Overnight low near 60° under mostly cloudy skies, showers chances dropping to just 4%. Commuters: damp roads possible before 9 AM, nothing more.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery & Prince George’s: High near 69°, scattered showers early transitioning to just cloudy cover, NW wind around 8 mph, 27% PoP tapering off by afternoon. Tonight, mostly cloudy with a low around 58° and just a 10% shower chance remaining.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: Cloudy day, high around 70°, NW wind around 8 mph, a modest 12% shower chance mainly in the morning. Overnight low near 58°, mostly cloudy, drier with only 8% PoP.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: Mostly cloudy, high near 70°, NW wind 5–10 mph, only a 4% shower chance — this area is on the drier edge of today’s leftover moisture. Overnight low 59°, mostly cloudy.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: Mostly cloudy, high around 70°, NW wind 6–9 mph, low shower chances (3%). A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon’s high tide — NWS Wakefield notes minor tidal flooding is possible along low-lying shoreline roads and docks in these three counties as the lingering onshore push from the departing nor’easter slows drainage, with 1–2 more rounds of mostly minor flooding possible through this evening. Overnight low near 60°.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester: High in the upper 60s (grid: 69°), mostly cloudy, winds NW 8–12 mph. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Inland Worcester and the Maryland beaches through this afternoon’s high tide — minor flooding possible on the bayside as residual water works its way out. At the beach: surf running 2 to 3 feet, water temp around 70°, and a Moderate Rip Current Risk from 8 AM through this evening — swim near a lifeguard and respect the flags. High tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier is 9:09 AM, low tide 3:30 PM. Tonight cools to around 62° with lingering clouds.

⚠️ Active Hazards

• Coastal Flood Advisory (Minor): Inland Worcester County and the Maryland Beaches (Ocean City/Assateague) — in effect through this afternoon’s high tide cycle. Minor bayside flooding possible.
• Coastal Flood Advisory (Minor): Dorchester, Wicomico, and Somerset counties — through this afternoon’s high tide. Minor flooding on low-lying shoreline roads possible; NWS Wakefield notes 1–2 more rounds of mostly minor flooding through this evening as the nor’easter’s onshore push slowly eases.
• Moderate Rip Current Risk at Ocean City beaches, 8 AM through this evening. Surf 2–3 feet.

Note: these advisories cover the lower Eastern Shore and coast, per NWS Wakefield’s outlook. Farther north and west, in the Baltimore/Washington forecast area, NWS Baltimore/Washington’s overnight update confirms Coastal Flood Advisories there have been cancelled — no coastal flood concern for the Chesapeake Bay shoreline in central Maryland today.

🌧 Severe & Flooding

No severe weather is expected. The only flooding concern is the minor, tide-driven coastal flooding noted above on the lower Eastern Shore and Ocean City — a lingering effect of the departing nor’easter’s onshore flow, not a rainfall-driven event. NWS Baltimore/Washington’s Hazardous Weather Outlook confirms no hazardous weather expected inland today or tonight.

☀️ Heat, Humidity & Wind

Nothing extreme today — highs mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s under thick cloud cover, with central Virginia (not us) seeing the only mid-70s breaks. Winds are lighter than this past weekend, generally NW around 5–10 mph, occasionally gusting near the Bay and coast (8–12 mph at Ocean City). No heat or humidity concerns; that changes by Wednesday and Thursday as readings climb into the 80s.

⚓ Chesapeake Bay & Marine

No marine hazards or Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Bay waters continue to settle down as the departing nor’easter’s wind field relaxes; expect a lighter, more typical NW breeze on the water today.

🌙 Overnight Lows by Zone

📅 Looking Ahead

Tuesday: Patchy morning fog (especially western MD), then partly to mostly sunny with highs climbing into the mid-70s inland (74–76°) and low 70s on the Shore. A dry, pleasant day overall.

Wednesday: Warmer still — widespread upper 70s to near 80° (Cumberland even 81°), sunny skies, light winds. Some patchy overnight fog possible with light winds and rising dew points. Thursday and Friday push toward the mid-to-upper 80s inland before a cold front approaches late Friday, bringing a shot at showers and a cooler, more unsettled weekend.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.

MDWA — your director’s cut forecast for every corner of Maryland. Stay dry this morning, and enjoy the warm-up on the way.