Isaias’s remnants exit, sunshine returns — plus a warming week ahead

The Big Picture

Good morning. The slow-spinning remnant of what was once Hurricane Isaias is finally packing its bags, and it’s taking the lingering rain with it. NWS Baltimore/Washington (2:50 AM update) and NWS Wakefield (2:27 AM) both have the leftover low pushing offshore through today, with showers — some still moderate to heavy early on — tapering west to east through the morning. The good news: this is the tail end of a soggy stretch, not the start of a new one. The Flood Watch that had been up overnight has already been let go. Behind it, winds pick up out of the northwest, clouds slowly scatter, and a multi-day warming trend kicks off that peaks with possibly record-challenging heat by Wednesday.

Timing Today (Columbus Day)

• Early morning (now–9 AM): Showers ongoing statewide, heaviest over central Maryland and the Upper Shore, where some patchy fog is also mixing in. Gusty north/northwest winds already filtering in behind the departing low.
• Mid-morning (9 AM–noon): Rain exits from west to east. Western Maryland dries out first; central Maryland and the Shore may hold onto showers into mid-morning, possibly lingering over the Eastern Shore a bit longer per Wakefield’s office.
• Afternoon (noon–5 PM): Skies trend partly to mostly sunny as clouds scatter out, though a stubborn cloud deck lingers in spots through the afternoon. Northwest wind gusts of 20–25 mph continue into early afternoon before easing.
• Evening: Winds relax, skies clear out further, and a dry, comfortable night settles in across the state.

County by County

Western Maryland

Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 63° — upper 50s to mid 60s across the higher terrain. Lingering chance of rain showers early (37%) trending to cloudy, west wind around 10 mph. Patchy fog possible overnight as temps settle to the low 50s.
Allegany (Cumberland): High around 73°, partly sunny by afternoon with just a 9% shower chance — Cumberland should see the best clearing of the western counties. Northwest wind 7–10 mph.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington (Hagerstown): High around 75°, partly sunny with a lingering 13% shower chance early, northwest winds 8–13 mph gusting higher.
Frederick & Carroll: High around 75°, slight chance of showers (23%) fading to mostly cloudy skies, northwest wind 7–12 mph. Clearing trend begins by afternoon.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: High around 75°, but this zone holds the highest rain chance of the morning — 71% — meaning showers likely continue into midday before transitioning to partly sunny skies. North wind 7–12 mph with gusts. If you’re heading out early, keep the umbrella handy through late morning.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery & Prince George’s: High around 72°, 53% chance of lingering rain showers trending to mostly cloudy by afternoon, northwest wind 7–13 mph. Commute could still be damp for the early risers.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: High around 73°, and this is the wettest corner of the morning map — an 88% chance of rain showers before trending to mostly cloudy. Northwest wind 9–14 mph. Give the morning a little extra patience down here before the sky starts to break.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: High around 73°, patchy fog early giving way to partly sunny skies, but a 54% shower chance means this area is right in the mix for lingering morning rain. North wind 10–15 mph.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: High around 72°, 51% chance of showers early trending to partly sunny, northwest wind 7–13 mph.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester: High in the upper 60s to around 70°, mostly cloudy early with a chance of showers (46%) before partly sunny breaks arrive, winds northwest 9–17 mph — breezy at the immediate coast. Water temp around 70°. Beach Hazards Statement and HIGH rip current risk are in effect from 8 AM through this evening with surf running 3 to 5 feet — this is the final beach forecast of the season from NWS Wakefield, so if you’re taking one last dip, stay out of the breakers and mind the lifeguards’ flags. High tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier is 9:06 AM, low tide 3:32 PM.

Active Hazards

Beach Hazards Statement / High Rip Current Risk — Worcester County beaches (Ocean City & Assateague), 8 AM through Monday evening. Surf 3-5 feet, high rip current risk — swim near a guarded beach and never fight a rip current sideways to shore.

Small Craft Advisory — in effect for all Maryland tidal waters and the Chesapeake Bay: until 3 PM today for the upper/mid Bay waters, Patapsco/Baltimore Harbor, Chester/Eastern Bay, Choptank, Patuxent, and Tangier Sound zones; until 6 PM this evening for the lower Bay and tidal Potomac zones. Northwest winds gust 20-25 knots, with gusts near 30 knots possible over the open Bay channel. Boaters, small craft should stay in through the afternoon.

No other watches, warnings, or advisories are active for Maryland at this time — the Flood Watch that covered parts of the state overnight has been allowed to expire as the heaviest rain has ended.

Severe & Flooding

No severe weather is expected. The flooding threat from the departing Isaias remnants has ended — rainfall totals have tapered off and the Flood Watch was dropped overnight as conditions continue to slowly improve. Any lingering showers through midday are garden-variety, not flood-producing.

Winds & Marine

Northwest winds gust 20-25 mph inland this morning into early afternoon before diminishing this evening — it’ll feel like a brisk, blustery Columbus Day before things settle down. On the water, the same northwest flow is kicking up Small Craft Advisory conditions across the entire Bay and tidal Potomac (details above), with the roughest water over the open Bay channel. Winds and seas calm by late afternoon, and a much quieter pattern takes over Tuesday as southerly flow returns.

Temperatures Today & Tonight

Zone	High Today	Low Tonight
Western Mountains (Garrett)	~63°	~52°
Cumberland/Allegany	~73°	~55°
Hagerstown/Frederick/Carroll	~75°	54-56°
Baltimore/DC Corridor	72-75°	56-57°
Southern Maryland	~73°	~56°
Eastern Shore (Upper & Lower)	72-73°	56-59°
Ocean City	~70°	~58°

Looking Ahead

Tuesday: A clean, dry, sunny day statewide as ridging builds in. Highs climb into the upper 70s to low-mid 80s depending on location — Cumberland and Hagerstown near 82-84°, the Baltimore/DC corridor near 79-81°, the Shore around 79°, and Ocean City a pleasant 73°. Patchy morning fog possible in spots, otherwise about as good as October gets.

Wednesday: The warming trend peaks — highs in the mid 80s to around 90° across parts of the state, with Wakefield’s office flagging the potential for record-challenging heat. Baltimore and Southern Maryland both near 85°, Hagerstown and Frederick near 83°. Mostly sunny with just a slight uptick in shower chances well out west by Wednesday night as the next system approaches. Enjoy it — a cold front brings rain, wind, and a sharp cooldown Thursday into Friday, with highs crashing into the 40s and 50s by Saturday and the season’s first chance of upslope snow showers over the Garrett County ridges.

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Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield. MD Weather Alerts — your full director’s-cut forecast, county by county, every morning. Stay dry out there this morning, Maryland, and get ready to thaw out by midweek.