Quiet Tonight, But Sunday Turns Active — Flood Watch for Garrett County

Tonight is the calm before it. NWS Baltimore/Washington (3:35 PM issuance) and NWS Mount Holly (4:49 PM) both describe one more quiet, seasonable night statewide before a much more active Sunday takes shape — rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some capable of severe wind gusts, an isolated tornado, and pockets of flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for Garrett County from 6 AM Sunday through midnight, where the ground is still saturated from flooding earlier this week. Everywhere else stays dry and comfortable tonight — the real story is what arrives with daybreak.

Tonight’s Timeline

• Evening (now–10 PM): Clear to partly cloudy across most of the state. A stray shower can’t be ruled out over far southern Maryland or the lower Shore, but most spots stay dry.
• Late evening–midnight: Clouds thicken from west to east as a warm front lifts north. Muggy air starts creeping back in, especially west of the Blue Ridge.
• Midnight–3 AM: Showers and a few thunderstorms push into Garrett and Allegany counties as an overnight complex tracks in from Ohio/West Virginia.
• 3–6 AM Sunday: That activity reaches the Allegheny Front and begins spreading east across Washington, Frederick, and Carroll counties toward daybreak — this is where Sunday’s forecast really begins.

Region by Region Tonight

Western Maryland

Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): Low near 65°, winds light out of the southeast. A slight chance of showers and storms redevelops overnight (71% precip) as the first wave arrives ahead of schedule for the coming Flood Watch. Allegany (Cumberland): Low around 68°, mostly cloudy with showers and storms becoming more likely late (53% chance) — this is the leading edge of Sunday’s action sneaking in before sunrise.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): A warm afternoon near 88° gives way to a mild night around 70°, mostly cloudy with just a slight chance of a late shower (16%). Frederick & Carroll: Low near 70°, partly cloudy, quiet — only a 10% chance of anything wet before sunrise. Good sleeping weather before Sunday’s mess.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: Low near 74°, partly cloudy skies, light southeast breeze, essentially rain-free (4% chance) tonight. Comfortable enough to leave a window cracked, though the mugginess creeps back by morning.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery & Prince George’s: Low around 71°, partly cloudy, light southeast wind, only a 6% precip chance. A calm night before an unsettled Sunday.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: Low near 72°, partly cloudy, light southeast breeze, just a 6% chance of a stray shower. Quiet, warm, and humid.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: Low near 69°, mostly clear, light winds, only a 6% precip chance — the driest corner of the state tonight.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: Low near 68°, partly cloudy, light southeast wind 2-7 mph, 9% precip chance. Calm for now, but this area gets into the thick of it by Sunday night.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester County: Low near 72°, mostly clear, southeast wind 5-8 mph, just a 3% chance of rain tonight. Enjoy it — a moderate rip current risk kicks in Sunday morning as onshore flow strengthens. Surf builds to 2-3 feet, water near the upper 70s. Ocean City Fishing Pier: high tide 10:51 AM, low tide 5:08 PM Sunday.

Overnight Lows by Zone

Zone	Low
Western Mountains (Garrett)	Around 65°
Cumberland/Allegany	Around 68°
Hagerstown/Frederick/Carroll	Around 70°
Baltimore/DC Corridor	Low-to-mid 70s (71-74°)
Southern Maryland	Around 72°
Eastern Shore (Upper & Lower)	Upper 60s to around 69°
Ocean City	Around 72°

Active Hazards

Flood Watch — Garrett County (Western & Eastern Garrett), in effect from 6 AM Sunday through midnight Sunday night. Soils remain saturated from recent flooding, and NWS Baltimore/Washington notes that repeated rounds of heavy rain Sunday — with precipitable water values well above 2 inches — could trigger isolated flash flooding. No other Maryland watches, warnings, or advisories are active as of this writing, but confidence is building toward additional flood and severe products being issued as Sunday approaches.

Severe & Flooding Outlook for Sunday

Sunday brings the real risk. A warm front lifting north will likely stall somewhere between US-15 and I-95, keeping showers parked over central Maryland for much of the day while a moist, unstable, uncapped airmass builds in behind it. Two distinct rounds are expected: an overnight-into-morning batch of showers and embedded storms moving in from the Ohio Valley (reaching the Alleghenies 3-6 AM, then sliding east through the morning), followed by a second, potentially stronger round of storms arriving from the west during Sunday evening as a fresh disturbance tracks toward the mountains. SPC has Garrett and points west/south under a Slight Risk for severe weather, with damaging wind gusts the top concern and an isolated tornado not ruled out; the rest of central and eastern Maryland sits in a Marginal Risk. Given the tropical moisture in place, any storm — severe or not — will be capable of dumping very heavy rain in a short time, which is why Garrett’s Flood Watch went up first and why other counties could see similar concerns develop through the day.

Heat, Humidity & Winds

Tonight stays comfortably warm and only modestly humid, with dew points beginning to climb back up ahead of Sunday’s front. Winds are light out of the southeast to south across most of the state, generally 5 mph or less, aside from a bit more push (10-18 mph) developing near the coast overnight as onshore flow strengthens ahead of Sunday’s system.

Chesapeake Bay & Marine

No hazardous marine weather is expected tonight across the Bay, tidal Potomac, or Patapsco/Patuxent/Choptank waterways, per the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook. Boaters should watch for building southerly winds and choppier conditions developing Sunday as the front approaches — small craft should keep an eye on updated marine products through the day.

Looking Ahead

Sunday: Rounds of showers and thunderstorms statewide, some severe, with a flash flood threat concentrated over Garrett County but not entirely out of the question elsewhere. Highs vary widely with cloud cover and rain timing — mid 70s in Garrett, low-to-mid 80s Hagerstown/Frederick/Carroll/Baltimore/DC/Southern MD, and mid 80s on the Shore, with Ocean City topping out near 81° amid building southeast wind and a moderate rip current risk. Monday: Behind lingering morning storminess, much hotter and more humid air surges in — highs near 86-90° across the Baltimore/DC corridor, Southern Maryland, and both shores, with Ocean City reaching a heat index up to 103. A trailing disturbance could spark another round of afternoon and evening storms before drier, more seasonable weather settles in Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your director’s cut for Maryland skies, night and day.