Nor’easter Fizzles Out Tonight, Coastal Flood Advisories Linger on the Shore

Our nor’easter is finally on its way out. NWS Baltimore/Washington (2:58 PM update) says the storm will keep weakening tonight as it pivots near the Delaware Bay before sliding northeast Monday. Most of Maryland sees the showers fizzle out by 10 PM or sooner, though NWS Mount Holly notes a lingering band could still clip Cecil County overnight, and NWS Wakefield flags waves of light rain and drizzle sticking around the lower Eastern Shore through the evening. Winds are easing from their weekend blustery selves, but the Chesapeake Bay stays under a Small Craft Advisory into Monday morning, and coastal flood advisories continue to nag the Shore and the tidal rivers.

Tonight’s Timeline

• Now – 8 PM: Scattered showers continuing to weaken and thin out statewide; a few pockets still active west and north as the system detaches from drier air moving in.
• 8 – 10 PM: Showers largely done across central and western Maryland. On the Eastern Shore, especially the lower Shore, expect lingering drizzle and patchy light rain to persist longer.
• 10 PM – 1 AM: Cecil County and the far northeast could see one more band of showers try to wrap in on the east side of the departing low’s circulation.
• 1 – 6 AM: Skies stay mostly cloudy, patchy fog develops in valleys and near the Bay as winds relax; a stray sprinkle or patch of drizzle can’t be ruled out anywhere, but most of the state dries out.

Region by Region

Western Maryland

Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): Low near 51° tonight (upper 40s to low 50s), wind NW 5–12 mph, scattered showers with a 40% chance lingering into the evening hours, tapering overnight. Patchy fog possible by daybreak as winds go light. Grab a jacket if you’re out late — this is mountain-country cool.

Allegany (Cumberland): Low around 58° (mid-to-upper 50s), wind NW 6–12 mph, scattered showers at 50% chance early, drying out as the night wears on.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): Low near 59° (upper 50s), wind NW 7–13 mph, scattered showers at 30% winding down through the evening.

Frederick & Carroll: Low around 60° (upper 50s to low 60s), wind NW 7–13 mph, 30% shower chance early, clearing shower activity overnight, patchy fog possible toward dawn.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: Low near 60° (upper 50s to low 60s), wind NW 9–15 mph early then easing, isolated showers 30% chance fading to patchy fog late. Anne Arundel also carries a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor tidal splash-over tonight into Monday — nuisance flooding near the usual low-lying spots and Bay-facing roads.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery & Prince George’s: Low near 59° (upper 50s), wind NW 9–14 mph, scattered showers at 30% early, drying and calming as the low pulls away.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: Low around 58° (mid-to-upper 50s), wind NW 9–15 mph, scattered showers 30% early tapering off. Calvert and Charles (along with King George) remain under Coastal Flood Advisories tonight — minor tidal flooding possible around high tide along the Patuxent and Potomac shorelines.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: Low near 61° (upper 50s to low 60s), wind NW 5–15 mph, slight chance showers (23%) — and Cecil is the one county most likely to catch a genuine band of rain overnight as the departing low’s east-side moisture tries to sneak back in.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: Low near 61° (upper 50s to low 60s), wind W 8–14 mph, slight chance showers/drizzle (24%) persisting longer here than anywhere else in the state per Wakefield’s discussion. This trio is also under both a Coastal Flood Warning (severe) and a Coastal Flood Advisory tonight — expect continued minor-to-locally-significant tidal flooding around the upcoming high tide cycle, especially along the Honga, Nanticoke, and Wicomico shorelines and low-lying farm roads.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester County: Low near 61°, wind W around 17 mph, chance of showers (26%) lingering into the evening before tapering. Surf running 2 to 5 feet with a High Rip Current Risk that was in effect through this evening — it may lapse overnight, but treat the water as dangerous until Monday’s update confirms it’s stepped down, and even strong swimmers should be cautious of dangerous shore-break that can cause neck and spinal injuries. Water temp holding around 70°. High tide at the Ocean City Fishing Pier was at 8:26 AM, with the low near 2:43 PM this afternoon; the next tide cycle resumes Monday morning. The Beach Hazards Statement for the Maryland beaches was also only in effect through this evening, so it may not carry into the overnight hours — check the latest surf zone forecast before heading to the shoreline after dark.

Active Hazards — Full List

• Small Craft Advisory — Main channel of the Chesapeake Bay, extended through Monday morning. Gusty NW winds and choppy water; small boat operators should stay in.
• Beach Hazards Statement (Moderate) — Maryland beaches including Ocean City and Assateague, in effect through this evening; may lapse overnight.
• High Rip Current Risk — Ocean City/Assateague surf zone, in effect through this evening and may lapse overnight; easing to Moderate risk Monday.
• Coastal Flood Warning (Severe) — Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset counties. Ongoing minor-to-moderate tidal flooding tied to the departing nor’easter’s onshore flow.
• Coastal Flood Advisory (Minor) — Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset (in addition to the Warning); also Anne Arundel; also Calvert; also Charles and King George. Expect nuisance tidal flooding around high tide cycles tonight into Monday, especially along the Bay and tidal river shorelines.

Severe Weather & Flooding

No severe weather is expected tonight. The main story remains coastal/tidal flooding from the departing nor’easter’s persistent onshore push — not flash flooding from rainfall, which has been light and scattered. The flooding risk is concentrated on the lower Eastern Shore (Warning-level) and secondary spots around Anne Arundel, Calvert, and Charles (Advisory-level), tied to high tide cycles through Monday. Confidence is high that this trends downward through Monday as the low pulls away and pressure gradients relax.

Winds & Chesapeake Bay

Winds are trending down statewide tonight after a blustery weekend, generally NW 5-15 mph with gusts diminishing after dark. The Bay’s main channel still runs rough enough tonight to warrant that Small Craft Advisory through Monday morning — small boat operators and anyone plying the open water should plan accordingly. Marine conditions turn benign by midweek as high pressure builds in.

Overnight Lows by Zone

Western Mountains	Around 51° (Garrett), upper 50s (Allegany)
Hagerstown/Frederick/Carroll	Upper 50s to around 60°
Baltimore/DC Corridor	Around 59-60°
Southern Maryland	Around 58°
Eastern Shore	Around 61°
Ocean City	Around 61°

Looking Ahead

Monday: Drier day overall as the weakening low finally departs to the northeast, but a broad, stubborn cloud shield left behind means it likely stays mostly cloudy for much of the state. Highs run upper 60s to lower 70s — Cumberland could reach around 71°, the Baltimore/DC corridor near 68-71°, Ocean City cooler in the upper 60s. A few upslope showers or drizzle are possible in the Alleghenies as winds turn more northwesterly. The Small Craft Advisory on the Bay continues through Monday morning before easing.

Tuesday: A better day is on tap as high pressure builds in — more sunshine, lighter winds, and highs climbing into the mid 70s across most of central and western Maryland (around 76° Baltimore, 75° Hagerstown, 74° DC suburbs), with the Shore and coast a touch cooler in the low-to-mid 70s and around 70° at Ocean City. Warming continues into midweek, with highs reaching the upper 70s Wednesday and possibly mid 80s by Thursday as the pattern turns warm and tranquil — before rain chances return late in the work week as a cold front approaches.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your director’s cut of the Maryland forecast, every county, every night. Stay dry out there.