A Genuinely Nice Friday Before Saturday’s Soaker Arrives

Good morning. Deep breath, Maryland — today is the reward day. NWS Baltimore/Washington (issued 3:45 AM) and NWS Mount Holly (2:47 AM) both describe a drier, sunnier Friday as the front from earlier in the week finally clears offshore. But don’t get too attached: a wetter, potentially soggier system is lining up for Saturday, with NWS Wakefield (3:02 AM) flagging heavy rain and localized flash flood potential arriving from the south late tonight into the weekend. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect this morning for the far western counties until 8 AM — that’s the only fly in today’s ointment.

Timing At a Glance

• 6–8 AM: Dense fog lingering in Garrett and Allegany valleys — Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 8 AM.
• Mid-morning through afternoon: Fog lifts, skies clear out statewide — mostly sunny to partly cloudy, comfortable and dry. Best stretch of weather we’ve had in a while.
• Friday evening (after ~8 PM): Clouds increase from the south/southwest as low pressure organizes near the Virginia Tidewater. Showers begin trying to sneak into southern MD and the Eastern Shore late.
• Friday night into Saturday morning: Rain fills in area-wide, heaviest and most likely across southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore, with thunder mixed in.
• Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely to widespread, some potentially heavy with flash flood risk — more below.

Western Maryland

Garrett County (Deep Creek / Oakland): Fog clears by mid-morning, then a genuinely pleasant day — high near 75°, mostly sunny once the murk burns off. Light easterly winds around 5 mph. Overnight lows drop to near 58°, with a slight (25%) chance of a late-night shower or rumble sneaking in from the southwest. Saturday turns much wetter — rain and thunderstorms likely (58% and climbing into the evening), with a non-zero severe risk (damaging wind the main concern) developing Saturday evening into the night as energy rides in from the Ohio Valley.

Allegany County (Cumberland): Also under the Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM — give yourself extra time on Route 40 or I-68 this morning. Once it lifts, sunshine takes over and highs reach the low-to-mid 80s, around 82°. Light winds. Tonight, patchy fog returns with lows near 61° and a modest 31% shower chance. Saturday brings a good chance of showers and storms (59%), high near 81°, with the same lingering severe-wind watch-item for the evening hours.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): A clean, sunny Friday — high around 82°, light northeast winds, no fog issues here. Overnight, mostly cloudy skies move in with lows near 63° and just a slight (23%) chance of a late shower. Saturday looks unsettled with rain showers likely (63%), high near 80°.

Frederick & Carroll Counties: Mostly sunny and dry today, high near 81°. Comfortable evening with clouds building overnight, low around 64°, slight chance of showers late (29%). Saturday turns wet — rain showers likely (73% chance), high only around 78° as clouds and rain hold temps down.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County, Harford, Howard, Anne Arundel: Mostly sunny, comfortable, high near 83° with light northeast winds — a good day to actually enjoy being outside. Clouds build in tonight with a low around 70° and a 29% chance of showers/thunder developing after midnight, mainly toward morning. Saturday flips the script hard: showers and thunderstorms, high probability (82%), some potentially heavy given deep tropical moisture aloft — high near 79°, noticeably cooler and grayer than today.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties: Mostly sunny and pleasant, high near 82°. Clouds increase tonight with a low near 67° and a 48% chance of showers/storms developing, mainly late. Saturday brings a high likelihood of showers and thunderstorms (84%), high near 78° — plan indoor backups for Saturday plans now.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: Partly sunny today, high near 81°, breezy northeast wind at times (up to 8 mph). Tonight is when this region gets going first — mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely (65%), some possibly heavy, low near 68°. Saturday continues unsettled with an 84% chance of showers/storms, high near 79°. This is one of the areas most likely to see the heavier rainfall totals given proximity to the stalled front and developing coastal low.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: Mostly sunny and mild today, high near 82°, breezy northeast winds up to 10 mph. Clouds build tonight with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms developing, low near 66°. Saturday brings widespread showers and thunderstorms (82% chance), high near 79° — some downpours possible given the moisture-rich setup.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: Partly sunny, high near 83°, breezy northeast winds near 7 mph. Tonight rain showers become likely (64% chance) with a low near 70° — this zone gets wet earlier and stays wet longer than most. Saturday: showers and thunderstorms likely (70%), high near 78°, with unsettled conditions persisting into Saturday night as well (69% chance).

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester County / Ocean City: Partly sunny today, high in the upper 70s (around 76°), north winds around 12 mph keeping the beach comfortable. Surf around 2 feet, rip current risk low, water temps in the upper 70s, UV index high — good beach day, just bring a light layer for the breeze. Low tide at the fishing pier 8:35 AM, high tide 3:15 PM. Tonight, rain showers become likely (55% chance) as the coastal low organizes, low near 72°. Saturday turns unsettled with showers and thunderstorms likely (71%), high near 77°, surf still around 2 feet but rip risk may tick up with the wind shift to southeast — check flags before swimming.

Active Hazards

Dense Fog Advisory — in effect until 8 AM this morning for far Western Maryland: Extreme Western Allegany, Central and Eastern Allegany, Western Garrett, and Eastern Garrett (also affecting parts of neighboring West Virginia). Visibility could drop to near zero in valleys — slow down on I-68 and Route 219 if you’re heading through the mountains early.

No other watches, warnings, or advisories are active across Maryland as of this morning’s outlook from NWS Baltimore/Washington. Marine conditions today are sub-Small Craft Advisory levels — winds north/northwest under 15 knots on the Bay and tidal Potomac.

Severe & Flooding Outlook

Today itself carries essentially no severe or flooding concern — it’s the calm before. The real story builds tonight into Saturday: a stalled frontal boundary combined with a developing coastal low will tap into precipitable water values approaching 2 inches, an efficient setup for heavy rain. NWS Mount Holly notes the Weather Prediction Center has placed a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall south of I-78 for Saturday afternoon/evening — that zone captures much of central and southern Maryland. Guidance (NAM/HRRR) shows isolated rainfall totals potentially topping 4 inches in spots, though placement remains uncertain. Southern Maryland and the urban corridor look most vulnerable to localized flash flooding. Separately, a marginal severe threat (damaging wind gusts) exists for the western Maryland mountains Saturday evening into the overnight as leftover convection rides out of the Ohio Valley. Confidence on exact totals and locations is still evolving — check back for updates through the day.

Heat, Humidity & Winds

Today is the pleasant outlier: humidity stays comfortably in check behind the departing front, and temperatures run near or slightly below late-August normals. Winds are light out of the north/northeast statewide, generally under 10 mph, occasionally gusting near 12 mph on the Shore and coast. Humidity creeps back up tonight and through the weekend as southerly flow returns ahead of Saturday’s system.

Chesapeake Bay & Marine

Sub-advisory conditions across the Bay and tidal Potomac today, winds north/northwest under 15 knots. Rain chances return from the south late tonight into Saturday morning, with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected on the water Saturday afternoon and evening as winds shift northeast. Boaters should plan around the Saturday deterioration — today’s the day to be out there.

Tonight’s Lows by Zone

Looking Ahead

Saturday is the wet, potentially stormy day statewide — showers and thunderstorms, some heavy, with flash flooding a real concern especially south of I-78/across southern Maryland. Highs run a touch cooler, upper 70s to low 80s depending on cloud cover and rain timing. Sunday stays unsettled as the actual cold front finally pushes through, with a chance for a few more storms east of I-95 in the afternoon/evening — severe risk looks low but is being watched. By Monday, drier air and lower humidity build in behind the front, with dewpoints possibly dropping below 60° by Tuesday morning — a genuine taste of early fall setting up for the first half of next week before another system approaches by Thursday.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your director’s-cut forecast, every county, every morning. Enjoy the sunshine today; we’ll see you again before the weekend gets interesting.