Record Warmth Today Across Maryland — Storms Arrive Tonight West

Good morning. Mark this one on the calendar — today is shaping up to be one of the warmest October days Maryland has seen in years, with record or near-record highs likely statewide, per NWS Baltimore/Washington (issued 3:39 AM) and NWS Mount Holly (3:00 AM). The payoff comes tonight and tomorrow, when a cold front finally arrives, bringing a few strong thunderstorms, especially out west, before much cooler and showery weather settles in for Thursday.

Timing: Hour by Hour

• Early morning: Clear to mostly clear skies statewide, comfortable and mild. No early issues.
• Midday–afternoon: Abundant sunshine, temperatures rocketing into the 80s nearly everywhere, upper 80s on the Eastern Shore and southern Maryland. Humidity creeping up as dew points climb into the 60s — expect that sticky, almost summer-in-October feel by mid-afternoon.
• Late afternoon–evening: A cold front begins approaching from the Ohio Valley. Western Maryland (Garrett, Allegany) sees increasing clouds with a slight chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm developing.
• Tonight: The front slides into the mountains and stalls. Showers and thunderstorms become likely in Garrett County overnight, with a chance spreading into Washington, Frederick, and Carroll counties. A strong storm or two with damaging wind gusts can’t be ruled out, mainly west of the Blue Ridge/Allegheny front. Central Maryland and the Shore stay mostly dry overnight with just a slight chance of a late shower.

Region by Region

Western Maryland

Garrett (Deep Creek/Oakland): High near 75° (mid-70s), the coolest spot in the state today — still well above normal for the mountains. Wind W 8-12 mph. Clouds increase through the day with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely tonight (74% chance), low around 56°. This is ground zero for tonight’s strongest storm potential.
Allegany (Cumberland): High near 85°, breezy out of the west 5-10 mph. Mostly sunny early, a slight chance of a shower or storm develops late. Low tonight near 57° with a chance (41%) of showers/storms continuing.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): High near 85°, clear start, sunshine turning hazy-hot by afternoon. A slight chance of a late-day shower or storm. Low near 56° tonight with a chance (28%) of lingering activity.
Frederick: High near 86°, mostly sunny — about as good as fall weather gets, aside from the warmth. Low around 57°, slight chance of a storm overnight (24%).
Carroll: Sharing Frederick’s gridpoint — high near 86°, mostly sunny, low near 57° with a slight evening/overnight storm chance.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County: High near 88° — sunny skies, a genuine record-challenging number for mid-October. A slight chance of showers/storms arrives late in the day. Low tonight near 60°, 25% chance of lingering activity overnight before clouds build.
Harford: Same air mass — sunny, high around 88°, low near 60° with a slight chance of evening storms.
Howard: High near 88°, sunny, low near 60°, same slight late-day/overnight storm chance.
Anne Arundel: High near 88°, sunny and warm off the Bay breeze, low near 60° with a slight chance of nighttime showers.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery: High near 86°, sunny all day — about as clean a forecast as you’ll see, aside from the heat. Low near 58°, chance of showers/storms increasing late tonight (26%).
Prince George’s: Sharing the same gridpoint — high near 86°, sunny, low near 58° with a similar overnight chance.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s: High near 88°, sunny and nearly cloudless — this trio may flirt hardest with record territory today. Low near 59° tonight, only a slight chance (19%) of a stray shower before skies turn partly cloudy.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline: High near 86°, sunny, winds SW 5-10 mph. Low near 59° tonight, slight chance (23%) of a shower or storm.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset: High near 89° — likely the hottest reading on the board today. Sunny, winds SW 5-8 mph. Low near 62° tonight, mostly dry with just a 14% shower chance — partly cloudy.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester: Cooler at the coast thanks to the sea breeze — high near 81°, sunny, wind SW around 10 mph. Low tonight near 61°, partly cloudy with a slight (16%) shower chance late. No surf or rip current data current for today in the latest issuance (last full beach forecast was issued for Monday); check the Ocean City Beach Patrol flag status before swimming given the approaching front.

Active Hazards

No watches, warnings, or advisories are active for Maryland as of this writing. Enjoy the calm — it won’t last through the weekend.

Severe & Flooding Threat

The main concern is tonight into early Thursday, as the stalling cold front interacts with today’s very warm, increasingly humid air mass. NWS Baltimore/Washington notes enough instability and shear to support a few organized thunderstorms along the front, mainly west of the Blue Ridge and across the Alleghenies — Garrett and Allegany counties carry the best (though still modest) risk of an isolated severe storm with damaging wind gusts. Areas east of the mountains should see at most a slight, scattered chance of a storm overnight with low severe potential. No widespread flooding is expected, though locally heavy downpours are possible with any stronger cell.

Heat & Humidity

Today will feel more like August than mid-October. Dew points climbing into the 60s will add real mugginess to the afternoon, particularly south and east. No official heat index figures are in the gridpoint data for Maryland, but with highs near 85-89° and rising humidity, it will feel every bit as warm as it reads on the thermometer — maybe a touch more by late afternoon.

Winds & Chesapeake Bay

Winds are generally light today, out of the west/southwest at 3-10 mph across most of the state, locally near 10 mph at the coast. Marine conditions on the Chesapeake Bay, tidal Potomac, and coastal waters are favorable today with no advisories in effect — a good day to be on the water before Friday’s blustery front arrives.

Looking Ahead

Thursday brings a sharp turnaround: the front stalls overhead, keeping Maryland cool and unsettled with highs only in the mid-60s and rain showers likely (70-85% chances) statewide — a stark 20+ degree drop from today. Friday rebounds to the low-to-mid 80s with increasing southwest winds ahead of a second, much stronger cold front — Maryland’s first true fall cold front — bringing gusty showers, a few strong thunderstorms, and wind gusts of 35-45 mph in the mountains, possibly prompting Wind Advisories. Behind that front, get ready for a genuine pattern change: widespread frost and freeze are likely by Saturday morning, especially west of I-95, with mountain lows in the low-to-mid 30s and wind chills in the 20s in the Alleghenies.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your director’s-cut forecast, from the mountains to the coast. Stay warm today, stay alert tonight, and get ready for a real taste of fall this weekend.