MD Weather Alerts

Overnight / Evening Edition

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Good evening, Maryland. A weakening cold front keeps scattered showers and a stray rumble of thunder parked over the state tonight, per NWS Baltimore/Washington’s 3:15 PM update and Mount Holly’s 3:02 PM discussion. It’s a quiet, damp setup for now — the real story arrives tomorrow, when a warm front lifts a surge of near-record warmth into Maryland ahead of a much stronger cold front that NWS has flagged for possible severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Tonight is the calm before that.

Tonight’s Timeline

• Early evening (now–9 PM): Scattered showers continuing region-wide as today’s front sags slowly south; coverage is patchy, not a washout.
• Late evening (9 PM–midnight): Showers gradually taper from west to east; some patchy fog starts to develop, especially in valleys and over the Bay.
• Overnight (midnight–sunrise): A warm front begins lifting north into the state. Expect renewed showers redeveloping toward daybreak, with an outside chance of embedded thunder, mainly south and east. Patchy fog likely across low-lying areas and the Eastern Shore ahead of sunrise.

Western Maryland

Garrett County (Deep Creek / Oakland): Low around 58°, patchy fog, light south winds 3-9 mph. Showers linger at a 59% chance through the night — nothing heavy, just a soggy, gray mountain evening.

Allegany County (Cumberland): Low near 57°, winds light out of the southeast. Rain showers likely overnight (61% chance) as the warm front noses in from the south — Cumberland may see steadier rain than areas farther east tonight.

Northern & Central Maryland

Washington County (Hagerstown): Low near 57°, winds south 6-10 mph. Chance of showers continues overnight at 50% — don’t be surprised by a wet commute if you’re out early.

Frederick County: Low around 58°, southeast winds 2-8 mph. Rain showers likely tonight, 55% chance, as the warm front approaches from the south.

Carroll County: Shares the Frederick/Carroll gridpoint — low near 58°, same likely-shower setup overnight.

Baltimore Metro

Baltimore City & County: Low near 60°, light southeast wind around 6 mph. Rain showers likely tonight, 62% chance — keep the umbrella handy if you’re out past dark.

Harford County: Same metro gridpoint — low around 60°, similar likely-shower pattern overnight, tapering toward early morning.

Howard County: Low near 60°, matching the Baltimore/Central MD profile — damp evening, showers likely.

Anne Arundel County: Low around 60°, southeast wind 6 mph, 62% shower chance overnight — the Bay shoreline could see patchy fog develop late.

DC Suburbs

Montgomery County: Low near 58°, southeast winds around 6 mph. Chance of showers tonight at 51%, trending toward patchy fog by early morning.

Prince George’s County: Essentially the same forecast — low around 58°, shower chances near 51%, with any lingering activity fading late.

Southern Maryland

Charles, Calvert & St. Mary’s Counties: Low near 59°, light southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of showers tonight at 38% — a quieter night here than points north, though the warm front moving in toward daybreak could bring a few more showers by sunrise.

Upper Eastern Shore

Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot & Caroline Counties: Low near 60°, southeast wind 5-10 mph. Rain showers likely tonight, 59% chance — the Bay-adjacent counties may also pick up patchy fog as winds stay light.

Lower Eastern Shore

Dorchester, Wicomico & Somerset Counties: Low near 61°, light southeast winds 3-7 mph. Chance of showers tonight sits at 29%, the lowest shower odds in the state — a relatively drier overnight for the lower Shore before tomorrow’s action ramps up.

Ocean City & the Coast

Worcester County: Low near 62°, southeast wind 7-13 mph. Chance of showers tonight at 31%. The AKQ marine discussion notes breezy coastal conditions with occasional light rain or drizzle lingering, mainly overnight. No Beach Hazards Statement is in effect — the seasonal surf forecast product from AKQ has actually closed out for the year, so check back with MDWA directly for beach conditions through the offseason. Expect a damp, mild coastal night with onshore flow.

Active Hazards

There are currently no active watches, warnings, or advisories for Maryland land areas tonight. On the marine side, NWS Baltimore/Washington has issued Small Craft Advisories for Maryland’s Chesapeake Bay, tidal Potomac, and coastal waters, with a Gale Watch now in place for increasing winds beginning Friday afternoon and continuing through Sunday morning as the stronger cold front and trailing trough move through. Mariners on the Bay and coastal waters should plan around building winds and seas starting tomorrow.

Severe Weather & Flooding Outlook — Looking to Friday

Tonight itself is low-key: limited instability keeps thunder coverage sparse, and any rain is more nuisance than threat. The real concern builds Friday afternoon into evening, when a strong cold front races off the Ohio Valley and slams into a warm, humid airmass over Maryland (highs near 80-84° in spots). NWS Baltimore/Washington notes DCAPE in the low 1000s and elevated shear, with SPC placing the Baltimore-Washington metro corridor in a Slight Risk for severe weather. The primary threat is damaging straight-line wind gusts from a fast-moving line of storms, with a QLCS tornado spin-up not out of the question. Confidence is moderate-to-high on the timing (afternoon through evening Friday) and on wind as the top hazard; flash flooding is a lesser concern given drier air aloft (PWATs near 1.2-1.4 inches).

Winds & Chesapeake Bay

Winds stay light and manageable tonight across the interior, generally under 10 mph from the south or southeast. The Bay and coastal waters are the exception — breezy conditions persist, and that breeziness only builds through Friday and into the weekend as the Gale Watch window opens. Boaters should take the advisory seriously; this isn’t a one-afternoon blip but a multi-day period of building wind and seas on the water.

Overnight Lows by Zone

Zone	Low Tonight
Western Mountains (Garrett)	Around 58°
Cumberland / Hagerstown	Around 57°
Frederick / Carroll	Around 58°
Baltimore / DC Corridor	Near 58-60°
Southern Maryland	Around 59°
Eastern Shore (Upper & Lower)	Near 60-61°
Ocean City	Around 62°

Looking Ahead

Friday: Morning showers and patchy fog clear out by late morning as the warm front lifts north, followed by a lull and a surge of warmth — highs reaching into the low-to-mid 80s across central and southern Maryland (around 82-84°), with Hagerstown near 84° and even Cumberland warming to near 82°. That warmth sets the stage for the afternoon-evening severe threat as the stronger cold front arrives, bringing a line of thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. Behind it, much colder air settles in.

Saturday: A sharp comedown — highs stuck in the mid-50s area-wide (Western Maryland only in the mid-40s) as a trailing trough keeps clouds and scattered showers going, especially across the Eastern Shore and coast, where rain chances run as high as 78% and wind gusts could approach 30-40 mph over the mountains. Clearing arrives by Sunday behind the front, with widespread frost and possibly freezing temperatures west of the Blue Ridge and in the Appalachians — lows dropping into the 20s and 30s across Garrett and Allegany counties Saturday night.

Dry, well-below-average temperatures then hold on through the start of next week as high pressure builds in, with some moderation possible by Tuesday into Wednesday.

Data: NWS Baltimore/Washington, Mount Holly & Wakefield.
MD Weather Alerts — your director’s-cut forecast, every county, every time. Stay dry tonight, and get ready for a wild swing from summer-warm Friday to frosty by the weekend.